Token Launches · resolved market
Will USD.AI launch a token in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04c702f3b83b2dbcedceeaa49a3923713ded5e9710bdb5d523fef390548e21c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed Yes | 1c | 26,611$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.96 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 6c | 15,227$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.15 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,544$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 957$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96fe…2b6dbacked Yes | 13c | 706.86$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 37cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1d…b184backed Yes | 43c | 700$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 3c | 573.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe005…14fdbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf0…da21backed No | 51c | 492$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.08 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…b0b7backed Yes | 5c | 395$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea3…c7d1backed Yes | 5c | 350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…eca0backed Yes | 4c | 295.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +75%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…034cbacked Yes | 10c | 172.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb90a…78e1backed Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8909…652ebacked No | 64c | 156.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +213.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6975…6064backed No | 64c | 155.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92ad…9706backed No | 74c | 134.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…14ecbacked Yes | 12c | 101.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc83d…1ba9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1c…8d02backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD.AI launch a token in 2025?this page
- Will USD.AI launch a token by April 30?Yes won
- Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.