Token Launches · resolved market
Will USD.AI launch a token by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x349be0f6283a2198263d80d640d20e5c6ae5a2d7caa8e91181a21a58212f52c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb67…d696backed No | 2c | 26,944$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.7 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xe79c…c715backed No | 7c | 7,716$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 3c | 5,248$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.37 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 4c | 4,686$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.78 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 6c | 3,158$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.04 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked No | 12c | 2,618$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 3c | 2,436$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…ebaebacked No | 6c | 1,800$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed No | 3c | 1,734$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 13c | 1,432$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed No | 14c | 1,398$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed No | 13c | 1,274$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 5c | 1,264$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 13c | 1,236$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…6487backed No | 14c | 1,202$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…a563backed No | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…ef57backed No | 14c | 996.19$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.61per pick | 19cpaid | +1,118.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…5ae4backed No | 5c | 925.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1113…cafdbacked No | 8c | 761.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked No | 4c | 700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed79…1e49backed No | 6c | 658.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +345.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 6c | 635$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…d4febacked No | 8c | 634.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 30cpaid | +657.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 5c | 550$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…bfd9backed No | 9c | 530$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 4c | 505.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…4048backed No | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…e18abacked No | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d42ebacked No | 14c | 499$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed No | 6c | 466.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e6…752fbacked No | 6c | 465.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd223…5ec2backed No | 3c | 432.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…f4bdbacked No | 6c | 432.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked No | 9c | 423.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 13c | 422.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 4c | 415.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…0318backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked No | 5c | 208$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +81%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked No | 5c | 205$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x178d…f080backed No | 5c | 204.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…e279backed No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d1…e145backed No | 7c | 156.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3b…1418backed No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd177…dd0ebacked No | 9c | 136.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c6…910ebacked No | 8c | 129.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4314backed No | 12c | 125.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +1,240.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed No | 13c | 124$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 12c | 112.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 13c | 112$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked No | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…9a68backed No | 14c | 107.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD.AI launch a token by April 30?this page
- Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?No won
- Will USD.AI launch a token in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.