TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,068,808
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,765,407

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,068,808 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 699 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x993c…6787backed Yes14c82,281$11,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,613.282231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes7c81,090$5,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,591.967821.8%17 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes26c70,189$18,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,371.653348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes8c64,586$5,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,455.461844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes10c61,665$6,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,347.829115.4%14 W · 77 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-71.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes9c47,759$4,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,412.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2d…6130backed Yes11c46,576$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef5…5d4fbacked Yes1c44,057$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.12714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-61.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77a4…c84fbacked Yes7c36,538$2,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,727.511020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-69.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes13c30,510$3,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,972.088247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes28c29,008$8,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,122.321643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c97…4569backed Yes7c27,111$2,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,032.15133.3%17 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x449c…879ebacked Yes10c26,908$2,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,782.163844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes8c26,655$2,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,123.484810.4%5 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7319…0299backed Yes5c26,632$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.156814.7%10 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-56.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes4c26,071$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.432114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-59.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes12c25,953$3,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,020.494429.5%13 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes12c25,640$3,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,145.79742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes20c25,602$5,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,085.171145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba02…0c88backed Yes33c20,862$6,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,983.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes18c20,685$3,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,784.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x001a…810bbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f1…13dcbacked Yes15c18,846$2,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,852.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ead…9572backed Yes8c16,196$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes8c16,121$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.668725.3%22 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b04…3a41backed Yes27c15,523$4,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,18020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes9c13,563$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.658232.9%27 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfec5…ddb5backed Yes7c13,311$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes10c13,000$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2704517.8%8 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes5c12,631$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.73911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39df…644bbacked Yes3c12,514$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-65.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes25c11,991$3,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,033.749326.9%25 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes4c11,922$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.6905.6%5 W · 85 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-82.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes20c11,368$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,320.1526318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No75c10,740$8,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.1814750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes24c10,058$2,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,408.74933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes4c10,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-55.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf20…f904backed Yes8c10,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes15c9,915$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.442065%13 W · 7 L+5.3wins+0.27per pick38cpaid+94.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes13c9,869$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.5826238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fa6…4465backed Yes3c9,844$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.450%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes17c9,827$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.031526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-54.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No74c9,768$7,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,557.417525.3%19 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes12c9,500$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1153345.5%15 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes18c9,348$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.7512927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes36c8,895$3,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,181.6175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick23cpaid-89%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes31c8,720$2,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,704.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes4c8,434$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.774920.4%10 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28e9…f89dbacked Yes5c7,886$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21dd…ca3abacked Yes10c7,795$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes6c7,428$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.6590%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes8c7,367$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.268936%32 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…357dbacked Yes23c6,663$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf886…3066backed Yes8c6,364$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.82633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Yes40c6,272$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4801241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes18c6,028$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.484555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01dc…1839backed Yes10c5,700$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Yes13c5,635$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.44425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes10c5,515$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.061040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes10c5,436$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.232458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7720…da92backed Yes20c5,352$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.8480%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c3…740bbacked Yes15c5,337$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes18c5,335$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.791811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-79.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf492…3061backed Yes11c5,192$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.09520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-71.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes8c5,112$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.96633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes8c5,096$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a5…afc8backed No77c5,092$3,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.39771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick63cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-72.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf67f…31cfbacked Yes1c5,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4aa…c5f8backed Yes20c4,963$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes15c4,956$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.945422.2%12 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes7c4,784$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.87170%0 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed No66c4,771$3,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,633.243461.8%21 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+34.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x68d8…af58backed Yes21c4,735$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.81540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+126.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d27…62cabacked Yes8c4,585$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.5850%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed No77c4,500$3,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0251090%9 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick64cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes16c4,106$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.712025%5 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed No70c3,920$2,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.032665.4%17 W · 9 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+27.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes10c3,905$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.5423435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb3…b7febacked Yes23c3,856$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-45.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6962…929abacked Yes9c3,848$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd482…355dbacked Yes4c3,777$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.95425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-66.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed Yes33c3,750$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.883432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes10c3,731$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.57290%0 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b24…5b1fbacked Yes4c3,719$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes15c3,591$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.254847.9%23 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes8c3,528$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.42185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-77.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes7c3,514$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.71120%0 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes8c3,500$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2916518.5%12 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b2…15b5backed Yes29c3,448$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes5c3,424$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.632619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes25c3,391$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.53728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0097…4a1dbacked Yes12c3,332$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-67.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x008d…6958backed Yes21c3,323$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.941258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dae…6382backed Yes8c3,181$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed Yes17c3,167$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.251414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-79.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f14…7c4cbacked Yes3c3,057$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52be…58cabacked Yes20c3,000$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b48…050cbacked No75c3,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes9c2,913$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.92714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.