Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f676f8d85d60dd20ce0e0ba14608825b970a0491b419d7dedfa81bcf646af2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,068,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,765,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,068,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 699 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 14c | 82,281$11,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,613.28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 7c | 81,090$5,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,591.96 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 26c | 70,189$18,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,371.65 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 8c | 64,586$5,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,455.46 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 10c | 61,665$6,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,347.82 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 9c | 47,759$4,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,412.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2d…6130backed Yes | 11c | 46,576$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…5d4fbacked Yes | 1c | 44,057$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked Yes | 7c | 36,538$2,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,727.51 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 13c | 30,510$3,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,972.08 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 28c | 29,008$8,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,122.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 7c | 27,111$2,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,032.1 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 10c | 26,908$2,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,782.16 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 8c | 26,655$2,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,123.48 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 5c | 26,632$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.15 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 4c | 26,071$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.43 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 12c | 25,953$3,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,020.49 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 12c | 25,640$3,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,145.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 20c | 25,602$5,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,085.17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba02…0c88backed Yes | 33c | 20,862$6,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,983.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 18c | 20,685$3,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,784.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…810bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f1…13dcbacked Yes | 15c | 18,846$2,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,852.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ead…9572backed Yes | 8c | 16,196$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 16,121$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.66 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b04…3a41backed Yes | 27c | 15,523$4,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 9c | 13,563$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.65 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec5…ddb5backed Yes | 7c | 13,311$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 10c | 13,000$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 5c | 12,631$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.73 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 3c | 12,514$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 25c | 11,991$3,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,033.74 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 11,922$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.6 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 11,368$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320.15 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 75c | 10,740$8,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,660.18 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 24c | 10,058$2,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,408.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 4c | 10,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf20…f904backed Yes | 8c | 10,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 15c | 9,915$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.44 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.27per pick | 38cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 13c | 9,869$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.58 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…4465backed Yes | 3c | 9,844$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 17c | 9,827$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.03 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 74c | 9,768$7,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,557.41 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 12c | 9,500$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 18c | 9,348$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.75 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 36c | 8,895$3,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,181.6 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -89%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 31c | 8,720$2,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,704.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 4c | 8,434$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.77 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e9…f89dbacked Yes | 5c | 7,886$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…ca3abacked Yes | 10c | 7,795$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 6c | 7,428$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.65 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 8c | 7,367$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.26 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…357dbacked Yes | 23c | 6,663$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…3066backed Yes | 8c | 6,364$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Yes | 40c | 6,272$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,480 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 18c | 6,028$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.48 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01dc…1839backed Yes | 10c | 5,700$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 13c | 5,635$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 10c | 5,515$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes | 10c | 5,436$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.23 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7720…da92backed Yes | 20c | 5,352$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.84 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c3…740bbacked Yes | 15c | 5,337$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 18c | 5,335$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.79 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…3061backed Yes | 11c | 5,192$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 8c | 5,112$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes | 8c | 5,096$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a5…afc8backed No | 77c | 5,092$3,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67f…31cfbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4aa…c5f8backed Yes | 20c | 4,963$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 15c | 4,956$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.94 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 7c | 4,784$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.87 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 66c | 4,771$3,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,633.24 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…af58backed Yes | 21c | 4,735$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d27…62cabacked Yes | 8c | 4,585$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…f462backed No | 77c | 4,500$3,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 16c | 4,106$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.71 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 70c | 3,920$2,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.03 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 10c | 3,905$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.54 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…b7febacked Yes | 23c | 3,856$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…929abacked Yes | 9c | 3,848$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,777$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 33c | 3,750$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.88 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 10c | 3,731$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.57 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…5b1fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,719$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 15c | 3,591$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.25 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 8c | 3,528$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.42 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 7c | 3,514$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.71 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 8c | 3,500$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…15b5backed Yes | 29c | 3,448$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 5c | 3,424$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.63 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 25c | 3,391$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…4a1dbacked Yes | 12c | 3,332$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…6958backed Yes | 21c | 3,323$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.94 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dae…6382backed Yes | 8c | 3,181$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 17c | 3,167$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.25 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f14…7c4cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,057$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…58cabacked Yes | 20c | 3,000$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…050cbacked No | 75c | 3,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 9c | 2,913$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.9 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.