Movies · resolved market
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 163m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2783fc526e0248789099cdf876e01d0b2a19d2fde0918e858d7a904807f4856b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $450,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $317,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $450,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Yes | 1c | 47,081$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43db…9871backed Yes | 1c | 33,989$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Yes | 20c | 19,011$3,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,735.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7934backed Yes | 22c | 17,536$3,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,930.47 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 16,912$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.35 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Yes | 1c | 12,228$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.07 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 20c | 11,996$2,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,365.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 4c | 11,034$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.63 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 48c | 7,816$3,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,770.66 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x128c…ad12backed No | 78c | 6,384$4,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.97 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…5f58backed Yes | 46c | 6,333$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 21c | 6,227$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.63 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 10c | 6,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd2…59f0backed Yes | 9c | 5,257$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed Yes | 21c | 5,000$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf760…bf84backed Yes | 12c | 4,993$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 63c | 4,369$2,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.43 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…3c98backed Yes | 14c | 4,240$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.08 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…b70dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,189$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.21 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 12c | 4,113$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.6 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 59c | 3,908$2,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,618.41 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 24c | 3,654$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.16 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 51c | 3,625$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.24 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe304…ac86backed Yes | 4c | 3,571$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…33a6backed Yes | 5c | 3,500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…eccabacked Yes | 2c | 3,187$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 76c | 3,000$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…b7a0backed Yes | 2c | 2,992$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 1c | 2,790$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…35b5backed Yes | 29c | 2,749$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…1d23backed Yes | 5c | 2,620$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…39f9backed Yes | 19c | 2,596$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 14c | 2,555$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.13 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed No | 28c | 2,515$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,819.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x491a…27ccbacked Yes | 1c | 2,300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 35c | 2,226$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.94 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,217$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 40c | 2,178$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.38 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 56c | 2,146$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.74 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…fb90backed Yes | 9c | 2,120$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 56c | 1,962$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.29 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd25b…dd82backed Yes | 14c | 1,907$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…a437backed Yes | 9c | 1,725$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 1,657$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.8 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 12c | 1,647$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.18 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…6facbacked Yes | 10c | 1,549$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +171%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…038fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,457$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e82…6bacbacked Yes | 72c | 1,446$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.16 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 46c | 1,328$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.97 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 74c | 1,317$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.64 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb99…30ddbacked Yes | 5c | 1,209$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 42c | 1,190$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.21 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes | 8c | 1,185$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 70c | 1,099$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…56e6backed Yes | 42c | 1,096$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea5…7f90backed Yes | 17c | 1,075$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…719cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,046$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.03 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…3ff9backed Yes | 10c | 1,024$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 79c | 1,021$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.7 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 52c | 1,001$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…4252backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed No | 77c | 928.36$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.06 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…1427backed Yes | 14c | 814.82$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310b…b12abacked Yes | 4c | 800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 13c | 749.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 73c | 746.33$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.52 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Yes | 20c | 744.82$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked No | 74c | 729$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.54 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ab…790bbacked Yes | 24c | 702.09$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8957…e18abacked Yes | 22c | 695.98$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.27 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…da78backed Yes | 14c | 693.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9491…3344backed Yes | 15c | 690.35$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…b48cbacked Yes | 19c | 683.9$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.26 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 13c | 664.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4be…58f2backed Yes | 15c | 659.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 37c | 600$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 15c | 583.64$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.07 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 40c | 577.83$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.6 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 37c | 561.41$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.88 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd2…f22bbacked Yes | 4c | 557.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…9fd8backed Yes | 5c | 555$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 10c | 538.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 19c | 529.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…c739backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a0…ca6abacked Yes | 14c | 500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe24c…8f5bbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 15c | 500$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef9…2d16backed No | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 500$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 490.49$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.79 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…8ccbbacked Yes | 23c | 473.82$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…5ffbbacked Yes | 17c | 453.22$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 12c | 421.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 50c | 400$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 163m?this page
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 137m and 150m?Yes won
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 163m and 175m?No won
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 175m?No won
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 137m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.