TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 163m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$450,482
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$317,911

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $450,482 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8639…fb86backed Yes1c47,081$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5931625%4 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43db…9871backed Yes1c33,989$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Yes20c19,011$3,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,735.7350%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x06e0…7934backed Yes22c17,536$3,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,930.472030%6 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c16,912$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.351,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Yes1c12,228$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.072321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-58%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes20c11,996$2,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,365.45812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes4c11,034$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.631010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes48c7,816$3,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,770.6610537.1%39 W · 66 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x128c…ad12backed No78c6,384$4,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.971637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd0a…5f58backed Yes46c6,333$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9001323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes21c6,227$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.6332814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes10c6,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57016624.1%40 W · 126 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd2…59f0backed Yes9c5,257$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+106.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad87…6a86backed Yes21c5,000$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.05955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+43.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf760…bf84backed Yes12c4,993$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.91520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed No63c4,369$2,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.439545.3%43 W · 52 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fab…3c98backed Yes14c4,240$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.081315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab72…b70dbacked Yes4c4,189$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.212931%9 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes12c4,113$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.62817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed No59c3,908$2,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,618.4115059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes24c3,654$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.1614628.1%41 W · 105 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked No51c3,625$1,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.2429642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe304…ac86backed Yes4c3,571$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.35911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-62.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe52c…33a6backed Yes5c3,500$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.51717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…eccabacked Yes2c3,187$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes76c3,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2801656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8833…b7a0backed Yes2c2,992$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Yes1c2,790$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.91216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-61.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…35b5backed Yes29c2,749$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2031…1d23backed Yes5c2,620$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-50.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe340…39f9backed Yes19c2,596$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes14c2,555$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.135625%14 W · 42 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed No28c2,515$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.681947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x491a…27ccbacked Yes1c2,300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes35c2,226$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.9410331.1%32 W · 71 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Yes7c2,217$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1622138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-46.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes40c2,178$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.3828524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes56c2,146$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.745745.6%26 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+58.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc0a1…fb90backed Yes9c2,120$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Yes48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe504…70efbacked No56c1,962$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.292718.5%5 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-58.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd25b…dd82backed Yes14c1,907$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.53837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ac…a437backed Yes9c1,725$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.35837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c1,657$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.836538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes12c1,647$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.18458.9%4 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-76.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x604d…6facbacked Yes10c1,549$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.7140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d4a…2215backed Yes14c1,500$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+171%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8967…038fbacked Yes1c1,457$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e82…6bacbacked Yes72c1,446$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.161637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes46c1,328$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.9716350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No74c1,317$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.643644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb99…30ddbacked Yes5c1,209$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes42c1,190$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.2126041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes8c1,185$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked Yes70c1,099$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.26475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+103.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dbe…56e6backed Yes42c1,096$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.8140%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ea5…7f90backed Yes17c1,075$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.991118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-52.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e0…719cbacked Yes19c1,046$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.03119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b89…3ff9backed Yes10c1,024$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No79c1,021$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.72646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x520d…babebacked Yes52c1,001$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52111352.2%59 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba5…4252backed Yes14c1,000$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1421030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3703046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-70.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53a4…4447backed No77c928.36$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.0612451.6%64 W · 60 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d5a…1427backed Yes14c814.82$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.89425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x310b…b12abacked Yes4c800$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.11216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-33.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes13c749.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No73c746.33$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.524654.3%25 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26be…d699backed Yes20c744.82$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.591241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked No74c729$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.543339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61ab…790bbacked Yes24c702.09$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8957…e18abacked Yes22c695.98$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.271513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-75.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6af…da78backed Yes14c693.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9491…3344backed Yes15c690.35$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.65616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98a3…b48cbacked Yes19c683.9$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.261717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes13c664.44$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.172352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+48.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4be…58f2backed Yes15c659.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-51.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes60c600$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes37c600$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2238040%32 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes15c583.64$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.076015%9 W · 51 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes40c577.83$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.626431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes37c561.41$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.8811625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cd2…f22bbacked Yes4c557.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc363…9fd8backed Yes5c555$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.753522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes10c538.06$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.811136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes19c529.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10029735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c1…c739backed Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8a0…ca6abacked Yes14c500$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.51010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-87.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe24c…8f5bbacked Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes15c500$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4928528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ef9…2d16backed No54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.05475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+88.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes27c500$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.447328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked No55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2255726.3%15 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes27c490.49$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7948414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x980a…8ccbbacked Yes23c473.82$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-69.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdafd…5ffbbacked Yes17c453.22$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.65520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-73.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes12c421.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf933…52fbbacked Yes50c400$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19812240.2%49 W · 73 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.