Movies · resolved market

Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 175m?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b613304671da59487add15e7ef64263b6d2d9f24165cd6faa782b849a1dfbdd

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 24, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $541,741
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $367,409

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $541,741 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes	1c	61,633$809 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$809.35	328	14.9%49 W · 279 L	+14.2wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe488…f2c0backed Yes	0c	49,204$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes	14c	38,331$5,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,549.85	177	51.4%91 W · 86 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8639…fb86backed Yes	0c	36,467$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.47	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Yes	0c	25,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	11cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd0a…5f58backed Yes	0c	17,582$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb99…30ddbacked Yes	0c	15,363$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc081…224dbacked Yes	0c	12,680$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.68	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-44%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe340…39f9backed Yes	0c	10,640$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe304…ac86backed Yes	0c	10,506$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e0…719cbacked Yes	1c	9,390$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.91	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	22cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes	0c	9,324$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.28	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	1cpaid	+55.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes	19c	9,053$1,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,700.37	105	37.1%39 W · 66 L	+6.0wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes	14c	8,898$1,235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,234.72	236	39.8%94 W · 142 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes	2c	8,878$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.01	116	25.9%30 W · 86 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	1c	6,950$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.57	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x604d…6facbacked Yes	6c	2,712$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.01	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes	16c	2,458$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.29	297	35.7%106 W · 191 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe504…70efbacked Yes	23c	2,406$561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$561.14	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-58.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe52c…33a6backed Yes	4c	2,100$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.69	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes	19c	2,000$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.58	150	59.3%89 W · 61 L	+19.8wins	+0.13per pick	46cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,636$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.64	1,393	8%111 W · 1,282 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa15f…2f24backed Yes	2c	1,452$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc363…9fd8backed Yes	19c	1,443$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.66	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes	4c	1,228$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.74	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-81.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes	17c	1,144$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	95	45.3%43 W · 52 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	79c	1,130$887 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.35	365	38.1%139 W · 226 L	-19.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes	13c	1,034$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.49	146	28.1%41 W · 105 L	-4.0wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	6c	1,033$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.29	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5bd…76babacked Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed Yes	20c	999.99$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	33cpaid	-79.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	17c	998.99$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.27	67	31.3%21 W · 46 L	-4.0wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8957…e18abacked Yes	18c	970.31$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.05	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	25cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Yes	18c	785.43$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.64	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-58%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No	80c	711.36$569 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.27	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x450e…80aebacked Yes	20c	663$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.6	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	3c	643.93$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.78	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+2.4wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc10d…4532backed Yes	9c	550$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes	21c	500$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	57	26.3%15 W · 42 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	57	10.5%6 W · 51 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02b4…3908backed Yes	15c	500$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7815…5400backed Yes	2c	499.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No	76c	453.24$346 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.05	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	369.68$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.99	484	14%68 W · 416 L	-39.3wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	14c	369.5$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.3	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-5.4wins	-0.19per pick	36cpaid	-74.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed No	66c	300$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+2.0wins	+0.13per pick	60cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked Yes	37c	300$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e0…7934backed No	64c	300$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No	61c	278.29$169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109	264	31.1%82 W · 182 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2da…74e3backed Yes	19c	226.95$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.12	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No	69c	225.47$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.97	97	53.6%52 W · 45 L	+5.5wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	18c	222$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.96	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	10c	204.19$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.87	672	32%215 W · 457 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-30%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d5e…5c24backed Yes	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked No	79c	190.48$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.7wins	+0.21per pick	54cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No	77c	184.5$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.15	46	54.3%25 W · 21 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	9c	166$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.94	60	15%9 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	34c	166$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.44	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed Yes	17c	159.17$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.65	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	+4.3wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1fa…f3bebacked Yes	20c	153.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed No	63c	152.89$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.89	198	36.4%72 W · 126 L	-11.1wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed Yes	11c	150$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.53	66	42.4%28 W · 38 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes	32c	147.09$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	36cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cd3…44ecbacked Yes	10c	138.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes	25c	137.57$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.39	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	69c	132.53$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.98	870	33.3%290 W · 580 L	-77.0wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x490a…db32backed Yes	17c	131.91$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.42	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	-13%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes	43c	126$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.7	131	50.4%66 W · 65 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…d264backed Yes	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x96df…1f97backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8266…c472backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+2.2wins	+0.11per pick	41cpaid	+31%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0eab…4176backed Yes	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.17per pick	23cpaid	+58.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed No	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes	14c	99.29$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.92	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes	19c	95$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.94	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b99…ae20backed Yes	19c	84$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-51%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed Yes	36c	79.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8d47…0592backed Yes	19c	78.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	23cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26a8…2726backed Yes	20c	75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x756d…75e6backed Yes	40c	73.75$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.47	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes	23c	70$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.1	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcca…da80backed No	58c	67.67$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.39	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce2f…d648backed Yes	39c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97a5…c111backed Yes	23c	45$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	23cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38fc…c078backed Yes	40c	40$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No	76c	40$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	57	57.9%33 W · 24 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1401…0707backed No	78c	39.99$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.9	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf165…7e93backed Yes	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No	74c	29.99$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	-4.3wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb74…f8a3backed No	61c	27.33$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.66	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 175m?this page
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 137m and 150m?Yes won
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 163m?No won
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 163m and 175m?No won
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 137m?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 175m?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event