Movies · resolved market
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 137m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb01fe04d649c3dfef7f599f3d07ba85366a2b44527e8968131f7cfd44aaac84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $618,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $446,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $618,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ea5…7f90backed Yes | 1c | 59,850$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe488…f2c0backed Yes | 0c | 57,305$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 50,528$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.56 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 6c | 18,238$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.63 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Yes | 1c | 17,677$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…224dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,042$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…9fd8backed Yes | 4c | 14,432$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.5 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c7…dc5dbacked Yes | 2c | 12,487$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…1b6cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,567$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe304…ac86backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2263…4e26backed Yes | 2c | 8,875$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 5c | 8,844$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.58 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 2c | 8,567$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.42 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd2…59f0backed Yes | 4c | 8,477$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7934backed Yes | 1c | 8,446$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c2…ab5cbacked Yes | 2c | 8,064$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…444cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,000$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.63 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 3c | 7,966$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.69 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 7,037$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.61 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5255…f2dabacked Yes | 3c | 4,238$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 6c | 4,201$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.73 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…a4b9backed Yes | 1c | 4,011$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0f…7e61backed Yes | 1c | 3,874$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 5c | 3,859$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.51 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 5c | 3,500$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.68 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 4c | 3,112$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.37 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 4c | 3,038$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01bf…070dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,594$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 8c | 2,515$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.5 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c4…adbebacked Yes | 4c | 2,429$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +167%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…3dbfbacked Yes | 5c | 2,400$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed Yes | 4c | 2,323$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…603bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,056$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 9c | 1,700$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 1,658$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 5c | 1,561$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…4532backed Yes | 4c | 1,526$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…1d23backed Yes | 1c | 1,435$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eab…4176backed Yes | 6c | 1,290$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5122…8dc7backed Yes | 8c | 1,288$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,096$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.05 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b22…c59cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…6facbacked Yes | 4c | 973.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…20afbacked Yes | 6c | 916.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…d81fbacked Yes | 7c | 907.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…1011backed Yes | 9c | 900$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 9c | 859.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…cae9backed Yes | 9c | 850.28$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 5c | 707.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…1becbacked Yes | 7c | 660.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Yes | 7c | 600$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef9…2d16backed Yes | 7c | 590.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 5c | 514.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4028…7de4backed Yes | 6c | 487.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…3428backed Yes | 2c | 480$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…8ccbbacked Yes | 3c | 365.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…2f24backed Yes | 5c | 364.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 6c | 347.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58e…8d31backed Yes | 8c | 323.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…fde9backed Yes | 6c | 315.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +187.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e9…e718backed Yes | 7c | 310.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +248.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2f…d648backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked Yes | 7c | 294$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 284.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…560abacked Yes | 5c | 227.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…9794backed Yes | 16c | 199.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8957…e18abacked Yes | 8c | 190$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc47d…8053backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 15c | 112$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4db…ed01backed Yes | 15c | 105.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 137m?this page
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 137m and 150m?Yes won
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 163m?No won
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 163m and 175m?No won
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 175m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.