TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x727e…560a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
36
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: Champions League, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 53 out of 100; worst AI at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT2123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-28.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$12.63
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$25.99
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$102.31
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$130.12
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$165.58
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?backed Avatar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will "Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+368.8%+$44.25
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 157m and 167m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+206%+$24.72
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+58.9%+$11.78
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 167m and 177m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 163m and 175m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 163m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$16.08
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 137m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$11.16
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 137m and 150m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+320.4%+$36.2
Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$255.92
Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 27m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$21
All 21 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+28.2%+$29.77
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.