TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$476,356
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$356,322

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $476,356 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38d6…220cbacked Yes2c193,090$4,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,019.5740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb9b…d718backed Yes0c29,000$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb877…a13fbacked Yes0c23,217$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.741816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c20,002$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206222.6%14 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8d…5820backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f5…c6ebbacked Yes0c10,100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x213d…38e8backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9722…5304backed Yes23c7,240$1,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,687.340%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ce4…36a6backed Yes27c6,371$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,697.130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes6c5,597$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.4726041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53a4…4447backed No71c4,857$3,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.8112451.6%64 W · 60 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes13c4,221$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.5529642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes16c3,706$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.46425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+315.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Yes14c3,484$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.75714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No79c2,704$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.497252.8%38 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab7e…2a96backed Yes36c2,521$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.95616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-66%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes15c2,059$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005839.7%23 W · 35 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes5c2,023$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.582412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…b193backed Yes5c2,005$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.25812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-65.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf72a…ac4fbacked Yes2c1,712$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727e…560abacked Yes15c1,709$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.922123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-28.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes19c1,697$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.26119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-56.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes6c1,674$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6633123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed Yes19c1,648$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.152623.1%6 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-30.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes20c1,532$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.646731.3%21 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-50.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5999…ae94backed Yes1c1,300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.28633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes15c1,300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19532739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa145…0f42backed Yes32c1,243$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Yes16c1,210$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes11c1,156$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.275710.5%6 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes14c1,000$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.9316624.1%40 W · 126 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…9c04backed Yes35c939.99$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.951010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-80%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadc2…d207backed Yes30c929.8$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No79c898.16$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.885100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c8a…2be8backed Yes61c797.5$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8957…e18abacked Yes15c750.43$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1131513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-75.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed No64c750$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.0632814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85f5…ada8backed Yes16c561.8$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90254%1 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-93.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes27c543$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3728528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes19c516.45$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.85110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes14c475.88$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.61,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2651…3471backed Yes27c456.76$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.58119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-66.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaec0…b953backed Yes21c452.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.21219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-69.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed No70c450$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.553622.2%8 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes10c410$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4123639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed Yes8c397.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.181735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes27c333.34$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6711825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee4…fa88backed No67c272.28$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.691258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed No43c268.99$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+130.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x978d…5eddbacked Yes9c255$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.973426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes21c217.23$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.718422.6%19 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No77c214.55$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4867232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a68…33bfbacked Yes14c211.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x917d…601abacked Yes25c197.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505729.8%17 W · 40 L+0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0231…45d0backed Yes11c195.2$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.36425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+52.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Yes19c190$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.982759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x41f2…d8efbacked No75c170.12$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437100%7 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes14c142.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205957.6%34 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c48…056fbacked Yes29c139.74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No17c129$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.065545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7707…4fcbbacked Yes21c125.73$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35a1…2390backed Yes20c110$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24267.7%2 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-78.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes19c94.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0526431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee01…f1ffbacked Yes13c90$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.891546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No48c77.78$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3214628.1%41 W · 105 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes21c75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.91040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-43.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2548414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed No75c72.09$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.261618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-73.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x600c…10c8backed Yes15c71.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x447f…f362backed Yes22c70$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06ba…ad9bbacked Yes28c58.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.35520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-60.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes22c52.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.62536%9 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes28c50.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8881…b21dbacked No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.15366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a6…e0c2backed No70c45.09$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.48955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…5c00backed No77c44.79$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.14825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ca7…1cb5backed No79c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.43100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17c5…7c9fbacked No79c38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.92366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce87…2f3fbacked No64c27.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick63cpaid+33.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No80c24.21$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9619240.6%78 W · 114 L-20.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf547…9ebbbacked No64c22.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb915…a524backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.