Movies · resolved market
Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 17m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf076b411afd18d007dfcc44d1888aff789eb691a5101746d9a41037a96c5b1c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d6…220cbacked No | 0c | 51,655$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 1c | 5,211$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 77c | 4,000$3,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.49 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +19.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 79c | 3,933$3,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.98 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 4c | 2,640$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 332 | 23.8%79 W · 253 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce4…36a6backed No | 28c | 2,331$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 7c | 1,980$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.96 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 71c | 1,974$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.97 | 242 | 39.7%96 W · 146 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9722…5304backed No | 18c | 1,883$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 16c | 1,800$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +315.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…176dbacked No | 32c | 1,573$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc2…d207backed No | 1c | 1,430$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 1c | 1,400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 5c | 1,149$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c0…cda7backed No | 1c | 1,020$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 72c | 999.99$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.15 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 68c | 917.99$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.99 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 855.56$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.71 | 480 | 28.5%137 W · 343 L | -33.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 77c | 606.88$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.36 | 304 | 36.2%110 W · 194 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 21c | 531.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.04 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 17c | 527.22$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.13 | 509 | 33.2%169 W · 340 L | -31.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 11c | 490.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 361.67$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Yes | 74c | 342.86$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.21 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 17c | 341.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 72c | 333.34$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.26 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 77c | 300$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 148 | 30.4%45 W · 103 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…a4fdbacked Yes | 79c | 300$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 17c | 282.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 75c | 245$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f5…ada8backed No | 20c | 224.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…2a96backed No | 21c | 203$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 167.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 885 | 33.6%297 W · 588 L | -76.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41f2…d8efbacked Yes | 65c | 159.01$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d5…4d48backed No | 20c | 127.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +196.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 65c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…a4eebacked Yes | 78c | 108$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154f…9a12backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…f362backed No | 29c | 95.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…4fcbbacked No | 40c | 71.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 47c | 63.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked No | 28c | 60.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed Yes | 78c | 56.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 63c | 53.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 65c | 52.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe86b…8e43backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce8…3352backed No | 25c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4b…6f8abacked No | 37c | 45.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 41c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed No | 30c | 41.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…3f52backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5a…f00bbacked No | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059a…db01backed Yes | 65c | 36.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdc…dbc4backed Yes | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fd…71a5backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…05cdbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x899e…f470backed No | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc632…d68ebacked Yes | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +87%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…0b49backed Yes | 66c | 22.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…1ec8backed Yes | 65c | 22.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b99…ae20backed Yes | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61f…aed4backed Yes | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x627f…6409backed Yes | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cec…a753backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x026c…2155backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 79c | 18.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b84…462bbacked Yes | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…7d9cbacked Yes | 74c | 15.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1658…c74abacked Yes | 77c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 17m?this page
- Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m?No won
- Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 21m?No won
- Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 21m?No won
- Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.