Movies · resolved market
Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0ee7ac7f4b6a0d176b9379405a874f4e6551b8fdba0864790bed45d00b0e4f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76d2…6bfcbacked Yes | 0c | 9,817$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,046$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 1c | 2,820$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 76c | 2,531$1,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.61 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 23c | 1,286$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.14 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 1c | 1,280$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,270$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.25 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 2c | 1,006$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 12c | 941.16$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5d…5244backed Yes | 4c | 830.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0404…8353backed Yes | 2c | 815.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 25c | 726.59$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.48 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d88…f8a1backed Yes | 3c | 689.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…f1ffbacked Yes | 17c | 418$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 31c | 400.22$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…dd78backed Yes | 17c | 309$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfa…5704backed Yes | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ef…34a2backed Yes | 11c | 154$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 71c | 130$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 125.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 20c | 101.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d0…79d1backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…056fbacked No | 77c | 44.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c0…cda7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?this page
- Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 17m?Yes won
- Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m?No won
- Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 21m?No won
- Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 21m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.