Movies · resolved market
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81f8c8407835a6fc57dae9ea0450f2eec2af11c882920ca7359bc0bca5cf233f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $319,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $314,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $319,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 459 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 30c | 12,324$3,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,753.68 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…e306backed No | 79c | 12,000$9,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,559.99 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -37%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…3c5bbacked Yes | 18c | 11,516$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,126 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ba…e89abacked Yes | 18c | 6,855$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 67c | 6,801$4,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,243 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 79c | 5,169$4,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.28 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 12c | 5,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 17c | 3,901$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.09 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f14…892abacked Yes | 3c | 3,780$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf90b…cb6cbacked Yes | 19c | 3,200$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd8…2c13backed Yes | 20c | 3,123$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0f…8de9backed Yes | 17c | 2,951$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…d5f9backed Yes | 12c | 2,912$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 19c | 2,900$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.97 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c9…4c22backed Yes | 15c | 2,799$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed No | 78c | 2,714$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Yes | 14c | 2,630$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039d…a9debacked Yes | 16c | 2,595$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 15c | 2,586$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.31 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…f8dabacked Yes | 7c | 2,517$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…9837backed Yes | 12c | 2,427$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…7e39backed Yes | 18c | 2,171$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x107b…c292backed Yes | 15c | 2,154$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f5…192bbacked Yes | 14c | 2,100$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65e…d9d0backed Yes | 15c | 2,092$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…0403backed Yes | 16c | 2,023$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x144e…75babacked Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…b5e3backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2891…8d93backed Yes | 24c | 1,999$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1841…c63dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,992$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 14c | 1,967$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.14 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37cc…c07abacked Yes | 15c | 1,900$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 14c | 1,880$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.69 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Yes | 15c | 1,785$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5344…b9a5backed Yes | 21c | 1,729$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc5…f5fbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,667$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb389…3ce6backed Yes | 15c | 1,630$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 19c | 1,624$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.19 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Yes | 20c | 1,606$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ec41backed No | 75c | 1,585$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.95 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 17c | 1,573$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.21 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…9d74backed Yes | 1c | 1,432$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…09c6backed Yes | 15c | 1,400$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 13c | 1,338$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.18 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…8fedbacked Yes | 8c | 1,275$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.62 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +6.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked No | 75c | 1,200$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x061c…ce82backed Yes | 18c | 1,181$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44d…ba3abacked Yes | 17c | 1,177$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Yes | 13c | 1,115$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda8c…8bdcbacked Yes | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…224dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,078$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…ae9bbacked No | 79c | 1,035$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb3…5a71backed Yes | 10c | 1,001$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…9800backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…cdc7backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 80c | 999.99$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe147…81aabacked Yes | 20c | 985.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…bfddbacked Yes | 22c | 968.26$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7232…07fabacked Yes | 17c | 950.42$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…99a3backed Yes | 4c | 919.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee9…4767backed Yes | 17c | 916.53$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 14c | 913.4$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 902.73$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d79…1004backed Yes | 23c | 900$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…f653backed Yes | 30c | 884.81$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…cabbbacked Yes | 18c | 863.79$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed Yes | 2c | 844.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 14c | 843.94$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7c68backed Yes | 18c | 841.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0a…69d3backed Yes | 19c | 841.24$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 12c | 804.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80ea…5595backed Yes | 8c | 802.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 798.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 9c | 790.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…5f5ebacked Yes | 14c | 755$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 2c | 742.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…4aa7backed Yes | 11c | 726.54$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7881…5c15backed Yes | 14c | 704.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…9e1bbacked Yes | 14c | 690$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4896…ee38backed Yes | 15c | 686.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb955…726abacked Yes | 15c | 679.03$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked Yes | 14c | 673.65$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2592…839abacked Yes | 9c | 669.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa29…74adbacked Yes | 15c | 646.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 18c | 633.66$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac2…727bbacked Yes | 16c | 628.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…75e0backed Yes | 16c | 621.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 9c | 614.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 17c | 606.75$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe043…faa2backed Yes | 17c | 579.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837d…39c2backed Yes | 17c | 572.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 69c | 568.89$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.8 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…a2b3backed Yes | 18c | 557.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…f1bbbacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd30…b2d2backed Yes | 18c | 554.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Yes | 9c | 550$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 20c | 535.33$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de9…03cabacked Yes | 19c | 526.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?this page
- Will Derek Turnbow die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Holly Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Joyce Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Lucas Sinclair die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Max Mayfield die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Mike Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Nancy Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Robin Buckley die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.