TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$319,182
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$314,330

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $319,182 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 459 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a14…d748backed Yes30c12,324$3,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,753.681513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-81.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x643f…e306backed No79c12,000$9,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,559.993333.3%11 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-37%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d0a…3c5bbacked Yes18c11,516$2,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ba…e89abacked Yes18c6,855$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.77616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-76.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed No67c6,801$4,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2435100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No79c5,169$4,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.282955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes12c5,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes17c3,901$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.097125.4%18 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f14…892abacked Yes3c3,780$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf90b…cb6cbacked Yes19c3,200$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.1980%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3bd8…2c13backed Yes20c3,123$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa0f…8de9backed Yes17c2,951$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1199…d5f9backed Yes12c2,912$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.2950%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes19c2,900$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.973231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99c9…4c22backed Yes15c2,799$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x368b…2458backed No78c2,714$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.13633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Yes14c2,630$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x039d…a9debacked Yes16c2,595$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes15c2,586$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.3113740.1%55 W · 82 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x202d…f8dabacked Yes7c2,517$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-79.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2a6…9837backed Yes12c2,427$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c25…7e39backed Yes18c2,171$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x107b…c292backed Yes15c2,154$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.34633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f5…192bbacked Yes14c2,100$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe65e…d9d0backed Yes15c2,092$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fb…0403backed Yes16c2,023$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x144e…75babacked Yes11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1403225%8 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-44.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3303…b5e3backed Yes13c2,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26070%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2891…8d93backed Yes24c1,999$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48990%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1841…c63dbacked Yes5c1,992$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-64.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes14c1,967$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.143119.4%6 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37cc…c07abacked Yes15c1,900$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.93540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes14c1,880$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.6914015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa374…9709backed Yes15c1,785$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5344…b9a5backed Yes21c1,729$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc5…f5fbbacked Yes15c1,667$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb389…3ce6backed Yes15c1,630$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes19c1,624$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.19744.1%3 W · 71 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Yes20c1,606$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32560%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77e5…ec41backed No75c1,585$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.952556%14 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+109.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes17c1,573$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.214427.3%12 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa61b…9d74backed Yes1c1,432$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x648c…09c6backed Yes15c1,400$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2091338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes13c1,338$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.182010%2 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee76…8fedbacked Yes8c1,275$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.623378.8%26 W · 7 L+6.9wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+23.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked No75c1,200$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3021735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x061c…ce82backed Yes18c1,181$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb44d…ba3abacked Yes17c1,177$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-54.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Yes13c1,115$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda8c…8bdcbacked Yes18c1,111$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc081…224dbacked Yes19c1,078$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2081020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-44%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff72…ae9bbacked No79c1,035$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.06560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bb3…5a71backed Yes10c1,001$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes16c1,000$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.311020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-71.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf85f…9800backed Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…cdc7backed Yes21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No80c999.99$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe147…81aabacked Yes20c985.65$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a23…bfddbacked Yes22c968.26$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7232…07fabacked Yes17c950.42$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.7540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed57…99a3backed Yes4c919.11$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.92520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-70.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee9…4767backed Yes17c916.53$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes14c913.4$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.54544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c902.73$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.072781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d79…1004backed Yes23c900$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-80.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb835…f653backed Yes30c884.81$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7abe…cabbbacked Yes18c863.79$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf66c…4ab1backed Yes2c844.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.99440%0 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes14c843.94$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.81520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e0…7c68backed Yes18c841.84$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e0a…69d3backed Yes19c841.24$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.1450%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Yes12c804.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-75.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x80ea…5595backed Yes8c802.77$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.86812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes9c798.35$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.872042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes9c790.96$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.19934.3%4 W · 89 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97dc…5f5ebacked Yes14c755$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…b496backed Yes2c742.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x314d…4aa7backed Yes11c726.54$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7881…5c15backed Yes14c704.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c52…9e1bbacked Yes14c690$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4896…ee38backed Yes15c686.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb955…726abacked Yes15c679.03$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb78d…835dbacked Yes14c673.65$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.992240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+68.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2592…839abacked Yes9c669.54$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.26616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-59.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa29…74adbacked Yes15c646.67$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Yes18c633.66$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac2…727bbacked Yes16c628.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6503…75e0backed Yes16c621.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes9c614.22$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.28666.1%4 W · 62 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes17c606.75$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe043…faa2backed Yes17c579.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x837d…39c2backed Yes17c572.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No69c568.89$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.85042%21 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ee…a2b3backed Yes18c557.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f56…f1bbbacked Yes18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd30…b2d2backed Yes18c554.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a2d…4f43backed Yes9c550$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes20c535.33$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.914827.1%13 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3de9…03cabacked Yes19c526.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.