Movies · resolved market

Will Max Mayfield die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x702080ee30d508e251664b9d3148e15acd87c694899ebf1e28254d6269104bd4

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $87,913
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $82,225

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,913 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6c76…f995backed Yes	11c	4,788$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518.61	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x210f…1864backed Yes	6c	4,462$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.32	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73c…d882backed Yes	4c	2,450$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce0e…fb2ebacked Yes	6c	2,239$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.49	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x714c…f68dbacked Yes	2c	2,200$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	5c	2,000$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes	13c	1,640$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.71	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	5c	1,538$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.27	89	4.5%4 W · 85 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	1,388$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.85	170	10%17 W · 153 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	1,108$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.84	1,393	8%111 W · 1,282 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa440…3a69backed Yes	14c	1,000$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ad7…c55bbacked No	71c	946.03$670 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$276.35	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+67.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb44d…ba3abacked Yes	26c	919.07$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes	14c	873$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.48	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	-4.5wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e9c…0e0fbacked Yes	6c	871.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e45…b092backed Yes	29c	850.95$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c2…25cbbacked Yes	4c	804.86$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	786.25$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.98	204	2.9%6 W · 198 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	9c	785.27$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.65	140	15%21 W · 119 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf65…b3d9backed Yes	2c	734.86$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e64…5612backed Yes	7c	734.51$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	724.5$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.43	93	4.3%4 W · 89 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26cb…3e56backed Yes	3c	680.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.05	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-81.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x778f…c309backed Yes	4c	595.94$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	593.01$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.92	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Yes	7c	559.99$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.6	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-81%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f5d…b76cbacked Yes	10c	515.27$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes	3c	500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-75.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	442.35$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.33	278	1.8%5 W · 273 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6393…6525backed Yes	10c	434.41$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8246…4096backed Yes	5c	426.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	17cpaid	-90.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Yes	12c	400$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	97	53.6%52 W · 45 L	+5.5wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	5c	385.05$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.43	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed Yes	11c	382.18$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc72…9ccfbacked Yes	12c	379.28$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.88	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…ca8dbacked Yes	13c	377.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x336d…7c73backed Yes	14c	363.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e26…7650backed Yes	14c	358.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.98	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes	5c	350$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.55	80	40%32 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes	4c	343.5$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.81	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	336.12$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.37	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes	8c	311.01$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	74	4.1%3 W · 71 L	-4.1wins	-0.06per pick	10cpaid	-84.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes	4c	282.5$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.23	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e3c…a02abacked Yes	18c	270.32$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a02…c97bbacked Yes	13c	256$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.82	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42bb…9edabacked Yes	6c	255.19$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.21	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.28per pick	22cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab4…a7b3backed Yes	8c	254.7$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fba…8a7dbacked Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	-32%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c7…3f32backed Yes	6c	213.58$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82b1…547cbacked Yes	10c	209.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d7a…4ababacked Yes	12c	185$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.28	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a42…812abacked Yes	12c	184.9$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc98b…c581backed Yes	10c	149.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07bf…6a3bbacked Yes	14c	145.58$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bf8…6d66backed Yes	10c	144$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc430…28ffbacked Yes	11c	135$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.94	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe078…e707backed Yes	13c	129.73$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.36	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No	71c	100$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.4	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	66cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9d9…5670backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x53bf…11b7backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad22…10dcbacked No	79c	90.66$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.27	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+68.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe47c…642abacked Yes	23c	56.86$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-2.7wins	-0.25per pick	34cpaid	-87.7%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No	76c	22.56$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.43	65	20%13 W · 52 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Max Mayfield die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?this page
Will Derek Turnbow die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?Yes won
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Will Holly Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Will Joyce Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Will Lucas Sinclair die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Will Mike Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Will Nancy Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Will Robin Buckley die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Max Mayfield die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event