TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$139,884
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$130,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,884 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes8c4,255$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.596222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3303…b5e3backed Yes6c4,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24070%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac86…de96backed Yes1c3,894$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfab4…2f28backed Yes6c3,850$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ebf…2459backed Yes14c3,174$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.340%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4279…344dbacked Yes7c2,350$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.27425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7f3…5669backed Yes9c2,201$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes14c2,084$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.093231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes5c2,041$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.837125.4%18 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes5c2,000$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983225%8 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-44.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73c…d882backed Yes11c1,837$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20080%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes8c1,739$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5714015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes7c1,555$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.781435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0db2…c78ebacked Yes10c1,230$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e1…146ebacked Yes9c1,171$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7da…5edfbacked Yes7c1,169$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.11825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf059…6f38backed Yes9c1,168$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2592…839abacked Yes7c1,086$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.09616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-59.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaaf…6188backed Yes10c1,052$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes13c999.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302516%4 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03c2…25cbbacked Yes8c999.09$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87d5…9790backed Yes11c982.44$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1250…be2fbacked Yes10c980.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes6c954.43$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.18666.1%4 W · 62 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes7c936.42$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.263013.3%4 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2d5…c5b4backed Yes7c913.78$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes8c910.88$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8517010%17 W · 153 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66fa…950fbacked Yes9c863.44$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c839.02$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.742781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9229…65a7backed Yes10c836.28$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c831.69$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.341,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8a8…d29bbacked Yes6c806.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa42…5818backed Yes13c774.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Yes10c744.49$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Yes6c736.74$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.251010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-81%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe180…889bbacked Yes7c728.71$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.11040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c696.09$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.192042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbcf…2ef2backed Yes6c689.65$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7839…0a49backed Yes10c677.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02a0…68fdbacked Yes6c650$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-51.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes7c629.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.34544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe504…5c5bbacked Yes6c624.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d78…6929backed Yes9c623.33$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2390%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e77…c65fbacked Yes7c620$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c7…3f32backed Yes7c586.84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5370%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes5c557.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.89934.3%4 W · 89 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e02…b1c5backed Yes7c551.39$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf90b…cb6cbacked Yes8c538.63$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4980%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x42ba…a5bebacked Yes8c512.75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ead…3183backed Yes12c508$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-64.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xde5e…3a94backed Yes6c500$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.53847.4%18 W · 20 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x210f…1864backed Yes6c500$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252015%3 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-75.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6393…6525backed Yes13c496.3$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6750%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc169…b468backed Yes9c469.12$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40100%0 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc684…ce87backed Yes9c456.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a4e…65ddbacked Yes8c448.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0150%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes6c447.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f56…215fbacked Yes13c443.15$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.650%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7216…e7d0backed Yes9c434.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes6c432.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.353119.4%6 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5072…70c6backed Yes7c429.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e3c…a02abacked Yes11c411.89$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9670%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes5c400$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2674.5%3 W · 64 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ef…be38backed Yes6c382.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.036028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-33.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1cb1…2e56backed Yes13c373.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes11c358.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d06…9aefbacked Yes8c355.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-55.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1943…9030backed Yes6c340.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.98616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-75.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac49…6269backed Yes15c323.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2874…c2e7backed Yes6c313.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee6…b66ebacked Yes13c310.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Yes6c300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-51.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes8c300$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe429…7fd2backed Yes7c293.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ea…5595backed Yes9c279.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.98812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xded2…1c5cbacked Yes7c277.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc384…807ebacked Yes16c276.94$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8246…4096backed Yes7c276.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-90.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd316…3ab1backed Yes6c273.08$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9a…98ccbacked Yes7c269.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c2…1398backed Yes7c261.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.91711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x422d…5cedbacked Yes12c256.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a1…1e6abacked Yes7c254.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b9…61fabacked Yes8c250.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Yes5c250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.91333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes11c249.81$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.482040%8 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce0e…fb2ebacked Yes12c245.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2880%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe38f…0ff5backed Yes12c244.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x837d…39c2backed Yes8c240.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba2c…6a38backed Yes8c240$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x531d…a92ebacked Yes8c237.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe53a…37cfbacked Yes9c232.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-55%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf381…4f06backed Yes17c232.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4332…975dbacked Yes12c227.35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfd7…34e6backed Yes6c220$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…3f3abacked Yes6c209.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc462…c00ebacked Yes10c208.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7232…07fabacked Yes10c204.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff94…143cbacked Yes10c201.52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.