TailMyPicks
Market

Movies · resolved market

Will Mike Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$116,172
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,039

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,172 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x73c4…ba3bbacked Yes9c7,529$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.12616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-73.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6837…15e1backed Yes6c5,810$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.1911637.1%43 W · 73 L+14.1wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c5,528$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.671114.5%5 W · 106 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes7c3,516$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.263231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c90…47e5backed Yes13c3,508$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6231…4d1cbacked Yes4c3,414$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a36…3aabbacked Yes10c1,983$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,758$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.331,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7856…43b2backed Yes6c1,745$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2891…8d93backed Yes6c1,655$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x53b4…0139backed Yes6c1,500$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.51010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-86.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66fa…950fbacked Yes10c1,467$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e77…c65fbacked Yes4c1,420$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e44…94fabacked Yes4c1,416$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c1,390$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8417010%17 W · 153 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fc5…f5fbbacked Yes6c1,344$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35eb…69ffbacked Yes5c1,004$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x262c…130abacked Yes13c892.5$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9d…efc0backed Yes4c820.15$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10df…04a9backed Yes6c797.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed Yes3c761.01$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.46185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-60.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1de9…be76backed Yes9c706.98$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes6c680$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8314015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddef…d52bbacked Yes4c651.75$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-76.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6334…1c52backed Yes4c644.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes6c604.02$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.354544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8c1…93d2backed Yes7c600$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.21258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd708…f9b8backed Yes12c599.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8bc…fa0fbacked Yes5c595.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bc…110bbacked Yes7c579.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes4c564.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.19934.3%4 W · 89 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1706…52dbbacked Yes11c564.03$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes4c562.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.47666.1%4 W · 62 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a0…68fdbacked Yes4c550.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.59425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-51.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc169…b468backed Yes6c546.53$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.18100%0 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes6c525.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3368.3%3 W · 33 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-83.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x268f…ad1bbacked Yes12c520.4$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c514.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.582781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes12c500.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0836538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes5c469.89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.893013.3%4 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes9c452$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.82540%10 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76a3…5249backed Yes5c450$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7b6…cfe5backed Yes9c442.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4070%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes16c437.1$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.754427.3%12 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8246…4096backed Yes5c418.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-90.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3f…bb60backed Yes12c416.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.99137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-51.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa42…5818backed Yes12c379.1$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24fb…a48ebacked Yes7c357.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d25…6e45backed Yes4c350$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-62.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03c2…25cbbacked Yes9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c331.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.32042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Yes5c311.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.111010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-81%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f44…9e3ebacked Yes7c301.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes4c299.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1270%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dba…5531backed Yes8c299.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebed…6955backed Yes5c293.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e4d…4916backed Yes11c283.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a9c…0c42backed Yes18c282.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c7b…feddbacked Yes18c280.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a5b…162cbacked Yes5c275.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa111…0c79backed Yes8c245.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x748c…214abacked Yes7c235.49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.46520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32e4…70f5backed Yes4c235$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6295…7fadbacked Yes7c220$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd22b…48d9backed Yes6c206.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab4…a7b3backed Yes9c204.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4860%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93a4…a537backed Yes7c201.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7560%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.25726.3%15 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89e8…0af7backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-48.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eaa…ccc9backed Yes7c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.250%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x356a…1354backed Yes5c197.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dbc…7032backed Yes8c195.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+54.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes7c192.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.818345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d8e…b1c7backed Yes11c176.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe4f…e58cbacked Yes9c172.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162737%10 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d83…15ebbacked Yes12c171.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-53.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc926…8058backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes12c164.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4aea…badebacked Yes6c158.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc66a…5631backed Yes10c150.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4354…593cbacked Yes15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf381…4f06backed Yes10c144.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Yes7c144.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.295242.3%22 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddcf…cbf5backed Yes10c140$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes11c134.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.232161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07e0…1db9backed Yes8c130$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-50.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed57…99a3backed Yes8c124.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.54520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-70.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e27…c6bebacked Yes9c112$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec26…c346backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc28c…acf7backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecda…c5e0backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe929…299fbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1150%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x362d…ac5abacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes12c86.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3313740.1%55 W · 82 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.