TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,824,835
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,995,875

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,824,835 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,630 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4c29…7570backed Yes0c6,034,999$15,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,75510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed Yes0c4,441,310$8,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,882.623821.1%8 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f14…892abacked Yes0c2,243,516$10,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,222.2630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f1…bdc6backed Yes0c1,998,876$4,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,410.97450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5a…b27bbacked Yes0c1,743,448$5,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,855.8370%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf23c…ad58backed Yes0c1,469,773$5,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,630.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb802…5bbebacked Yes0c1,319,100$2,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,777.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9327…d099backed Yes0c958,236$2,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,131.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes0c912,196$3,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,037.04862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce5b…047abacked Yes0c770,960$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f3…c7e9backed Yes0c742,549$2,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,99810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes0c738,995$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.61966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+71.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c690,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,380425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x643f…e306backed Yes0c571,070$1,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.493333.3%11 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-37%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes0c563,957$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,51010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7a6…8117backed Yes1c559,905$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2891…8d93backed Yes0c533,032$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,786.8790%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2200…0522backed Yes0c529,055$2,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,117.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc40f…1950backed Yes0c500,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea5…fd88backed Yes0c477,931$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.331127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid-32.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf73c…d882backed Yes0c472,945$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48380%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d3…53c1backed Yes0c412,284$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,403.852138.1%8 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick24cpaid-29.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b6f…c91ebacked Yes0c400,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0ef…39b6backed Yes0c398,978$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.211741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1932…f08dbacked Yes0c357,417$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c9…1d5fbacked Yes0c350,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b6a…c437backed Yes0c339,307$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x210b…a49fbacked Yes0c339,217$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…7be6backed Yes0c333,630$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x025e…6a03backed Yes0c333,600$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe971…e480backed Yes0c327,632$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0a6…97abbacked Yes0c326,333$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbf6…301fbacked Yes0c324,516$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…dff4backed Yes0c314,000$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed Yes0c308,282$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cb7…3443backed Yes0c305,970$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bfe…5154backed Yes0c300,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x372a…3a49backed Yes0c300,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-69.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9378…a1ddbacked Yes0c298,081$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c46…00c2backed Yes0c291,186$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes1c268,148$1,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,753.891323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick18cpaid-39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c251,745$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.7330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e3b…5d31backed Yes0c224,329$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a8…ec99backed Yes1c223,575$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ab8…d815backed Yes0c223,379$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5480…efcebacked Yes0c215,167$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Yes7c203,401$13,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,490.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8398…749abacked Yes0c200,617$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5761…0c28backed Yes1c200,600$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.8944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick24cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa48e…b476backed Yes0c189,552$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e3f…b766backed Yes0c188,783$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabca…cfd1backed Yes0c188,660$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c90…47e5backed Yes0c175,155$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcd3a…4aa9backed Yes0c168,000$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c6…c53abacked Yes0c166,000$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2844…5aa1backed Yes0c165,519$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc61a…8775backed Yes0c164,160$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa37f…e967backed Yes0c162,550$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x334e…708cbacked Yes0c160,000$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfde7…d3f2backed Yes0c159,507$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1127…236abacked Yes0c156,436$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1832…2abfbacked Yes0c152,000$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e6…6894backed Yes0c150,718$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47f…1d5bbacked Yes0c150,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x514b…ad6abacked Yes0c148,707$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.6250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce5b…2859backed Yes1c148,180$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,493.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cdf…2a6bbacked Yes0c146,775$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes0c145,333$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc018…8997backed Yes0c142,941$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes0c135,897$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Yes1c133,791$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.21425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b2…a270backed Yes0c129,724$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c2…0dd8backed Yes0c128,207$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.2870%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5734…5c4abacked Yes0c127,782$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.4140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Yes1c127,530$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x136a…9152backed Yes0c123,941$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdf2…23e3backed Yes0c123,000$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes0c122,000$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-55.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe078…3ad8backed Yes0c117,735$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9db2…9f68backed Yes0c116,667$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b35…ee5ebacked Yes0c116,143$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb074…aa01backed Yes0c111,504$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48c5…a736backed Yes0c110,048$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab3c…1e6bbacked Yes0c110,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd836…b185backed Yes1c109,143$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Yes0c107,791$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.54540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ac3…16f6backed Yes0c106,960$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56be…3c89backed Yes0c106,667$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7991…24adbacked Yes0c105,000$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad5b…8ebfbacked Yes0c103,988$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e51…46babacked Yes0c103,968$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1baa…173dbacked Yes0c103,632$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.33728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-45.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…949bbacked Yes0c102,890$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07c…11a0backed Yes0c102,600$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Yes1c100,540$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x070d…5e15backed Yes0c100,433$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.1770%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc98b…c581backed Yes1c100,403$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae0…910cbacked Yes0c100,200$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes15c100,183$15,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,180.72757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1574…8b9dbacked Yes1c100,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.