Movies · resolved market
Will Nancy Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4751f5bda72bb28a5a3a467ef81608181d7ec6eb634955eb2b06fe12602eebea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $161,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2225…24d1backed Yes | 11c | 45,398$4,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,997.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb6…0942backed Yes | 17c | 6,334$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf90b…cb6cbacked Yes | 22c | 4,426$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb98…3249backed Yes | 9c | 3,708$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…b5e3backed Yes | 9c | 3,500$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948c…42eebacked Yes | 15c | 3,319$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…0010backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea63…1ebcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,675$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9da…7979backed Yes | 13c | 1,541$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5da3…f443backed Yes | 15c | 1,317$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 1,306$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.47 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cd…ea1bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,258$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b4…0139backed Yes | 6c | 1,162$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e1…a478backed Yes | 9c | 1,137$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…8fedbacked Yes | 6c | 1,128$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +6.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Yes | 13c | 999.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 18c | 999.83$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.97 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd30…b2d2backed Yes | 11c | 936.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 17c | 924.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.85 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…cdc7backed Yes | 14c | 915.49$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 8c | 840.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 766.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a0…fdbbbacked Yes | 7c | 758$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x120a…1e2ebacked Yes | 7c | 742$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb8…5d95backed Yes | 12c | 649.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 9c | 635.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636f…819fbacked Yes | 10c | 588$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d79…1004backed Yes | 35c | 573.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 550.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…f447backed Yes | 16c | 549.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…1cb2backed Yes | 11c | 529.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b8…f90fbacked Yes | 13c | 522.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Yes | 3c | 518.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 6c | 435$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…8ab9backed Yes | 9c | 419.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…d29bbacked Yes | 12c | 416.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 413.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 5c | 399.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…c66fbacked No | 75c | 386.16$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db4…0353backed Yes | 19c | 356.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…13f2backed Yes | 20c | 350$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d31…75d9backed Yes | 15c | 324.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…f5a1backed Yes | 11c | 317.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 7c | 315.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 9c | 314.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…3f3abacked Yes | 9c | 304.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes | 15c | 300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9f…de68backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db6…79b1backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…b76cbacked Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…fc60backed Yes | 7c | 280$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdb…babcbacked Yes | 20c | 266.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Yes | 6c | 263.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0692…a05dbacked Yes | 10c | 240.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…e08ebacked Yes | 16c | 240.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…16a2backed Yes | 7c | 240$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ef…f032backed Yes | 20c | 230.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 9c | 226.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 77c | 226.14$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…5790backed Yes | 20c | 216.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 25c | 210$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 10c | 204.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab66…28f5backed Yes | 10c | 204.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked No | 74c | 203$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 201.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 22c | 201.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…5d2cbacked No | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…5e15backed Yes | 9c | 199.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1551…2b86backed Yes | 10c | 194.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96e…1ea6backed Yes | 26c | 191$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 14c | 180.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc44b…4048backed Yes | 18c | 175.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…2f7bbacked No | 75c | 175$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec26…c346backed Yes | 14c | 171.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…a229backed Yes | 11c | 164.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc511…c479backed Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 12c | 157.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 25c | 156.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86a…86c9backed Yes | 10c | 155.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4f…e58cbacked Yes | 14c | 153.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b1…7d09backed Yes | 10c | 153.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…eeb2backed No | 80c | 152.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 152.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fe…3ee3backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…b193backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…e59cbacked Yes | 10c | 148.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4b…75b3backed Yes | 9c | 142.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027a…ea13backed No | 76c | 141.74$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x701a…1748backed Yes | 7c | 140.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…9118backed Yes | 8c | 135.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 26c | 129$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 12c | 124.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb721…facabacked Yes | 17c | 118.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…a0d7backed Yes | 9c | 117.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nancy Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?this page
- Will Derek Turnbow die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Holly Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Joyce Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Lucas Sinclair die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Max Mayfield die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Mike Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Robin Buckley die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.