TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Nancy Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$153,283
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,269

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,283 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2225…24d1backed Yes11c45,398$4,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,997.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcb6…0942backed Yes17c6,334$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf90b…cb6cbacked Yes22c4,426$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.7280%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb98…3249backed Yes9c3,708$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.1840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3303…b5e3backed Yes9c3,500$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.1170%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x948c…42eebacked Yes15c3,319$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.4260%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8c…0010backed Yes13c2,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea63…1ebcbacked Yes6c1,675$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9da…7979backed Yes13c1,541$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.9270%0 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5da3…f443backed Yes15c1,317$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes10c1,306$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.4714015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23cd…ea1bbacked Yes20c1,258$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53b4…0139backed Yes6c1,162$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.611010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-86.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e1…a478backed Yes9c1,137$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee76…8fedbacked Yes6c1,128$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.193378.8%26 W · 7 L+6.9wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+23.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9359…6aacbacked Yes13c999.99$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes17c999.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1702516%4 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes18c999.83$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.973231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd30…b2d2backed Yes11c936.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes17c924.99$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.8511625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…cdc7backed Yes14c915.49$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes8c840.37$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2817010%17 W · 153 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c766.13$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.531,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03a0…fdbbbacked Yes7c758$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x120a…1e2ebacked Yes7c742$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick39cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb8…5d95backed Yes12c649.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes9c635.56$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.16520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-70.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x636f…819fbacked Yes10c588$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d79…1004backed Yes35c573.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-80.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c550.28$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.752042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a99…f447backed Yes16c549.98$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45c1…1cb2backed Yes11c529.72$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55b8…f90fbacked Yes13c522.33$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Yes3c518.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8260%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes7c499.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.52015%3 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-75.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes6c435$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.754544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xace2…8ab9backed Yes9c419.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.12825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8a8…d29bbacked Yes12c416.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes6c413.95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9934.3%4 W · 89 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Yes5c399.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-81%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7130…c66fbacked No75c386.16$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6db4…0353backed Yes19c356.26$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c71…13f2backed Yes20c350$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c350$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.852781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d31…75d9backed Yes15c324.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb99…f5a1backed Yes11c317.92$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes7c315.21$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.32368.3%3 W · 33 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-83.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes9c314.58$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.133013.3%4 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a5d…3f3abacked Yes9c304.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes15c300$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-61.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e9f…de68backed Yes13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3950%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6db6…79b1backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes6c300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3666.1%4 W · 62 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f5d…b76cbacked Yes14c285.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb82b…fc60backed Yes7c280$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.76616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bdb…babcbacked Yes20c266.15$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051c…f25dbacked Yes6c263.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0692…a05dbacked Yes10c240.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x438e…e08ebacked Yes16c240.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.68520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea72…16a2backed Yes7c240$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ef…f032backed Yes20c230.45$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Yes9c226.79$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.36175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-74.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No77c226.14$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.245042%21 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43bf…5790backed Yes20c216.41$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes25c210$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.53655.6%20 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58ff…7e02backed Yes10c204.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick29cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab66…28f5backed Yes10c204.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd137…ceacbacked No74c203$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.111833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-45.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes7c201.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.19674.5%3 W · 64 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes22c201.2$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.822941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…5d2cbacked No79c200$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.84580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x070d…5e15backed Yes9c199.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.470%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1551…2b86backed Yes10c194.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd96e…1ea6backed Yes26c191$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6650%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7cbc…5196backed Yes14c180.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254112.2%5 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-8.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc44b…4048backed Yes18c175.6$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8acf…2f7bbacked No75c175$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.751553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec26…c346backed Yes14c171.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca43…a229backed Yes11c164.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc511…c479backed Yes9c160$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes12c157.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.288345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes25c156.89$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.22862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa86a…86c9backed Yes10c155.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe4f…e58cbacked Yes14c153.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.282737%10 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1b1…7d09backed Yes10c153.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-67.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb57e…eeb2backed No80c152.99$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.215100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes9c152.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2936538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Yes13c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6170%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8fe…3ee3backed Yes14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6960%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeda0…b193backed Yes17c150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-65.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e9c…e59cbacked Yes10c148.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc4b…75b3backed Yes9c142.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x027a…ea13backed No76c141.74$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.65580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x701a…1748backed Yes7c140.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74fc…9118backed Yes8c135.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed Yes26c129$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.543751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes12c124.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15496.1%3 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb721…facabacked Yes17c118.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-61.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8193…a0d7backed Yes9c117.58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.