TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$483,179
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$493,704

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $483,179 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 647 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x79ac…4377backed Yes75c52,878$39,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,459.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f14…892abacked No1c49,164$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No10c20,691$2,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,011.68757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefc1…dfcdbacked No28c20,269$5,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,625.59616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-74.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d3…53c1backed Yes71c15,654$11,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,582.612138.1%8 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick24cpaid-29.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d77…abd5backed No24c14,936$3,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,578.332437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes66c13,329$8,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,565.16922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x643f…e306backed Yes73c10,863$7,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,904.243333.3%11 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-37%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No29c10,013$2,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,930.99862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf90b…cb6cbacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes70c9,423$6,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,856.322955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5da1…ae1ebacked No39c8,765$3,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,449.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No29c7,772$2,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,262.451513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-81.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf66c…4ab1backed No1c7,685$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.97440%0 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e4…1277backed No1c7,542$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb902…6b54backed No34c7,116$2,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,436.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No31c5,295$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.49250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5761…0c28backed Yes71c5,150$3,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,481.48944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick24cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x372a…3a49backed Yes65c5,000$3,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,739.98520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-69.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee76…8fedbacked Yes67c4,627$3,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,542.013378.8%26 W · 7 L+6.9wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+23.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa729…98f3backed No24c4,160$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No28c4,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.992516%4 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed No3c3,895$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.02633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-47.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a36…3aabbacked Yes73c3,822$2,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.52333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e81…f0a2backed Yes75c3,600$2,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc360…d7a2backed No6c3,255$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7abe…cabbbacked No34c3,236$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc253…9391backed No3c3,198$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No27c3,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8102740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e3…045abacked No1c2,721$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9331…4b41backed No32c2,612$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x368b…2458backed Yes67c2,393$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.62633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x110f…8f39backed Yes67c2,300$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.994472.7%32 W · 12 L+8.7wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+59.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No29c2,189$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.38520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8f…d7e3backed No10c2,014$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5801435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d80…c953backed No37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f4…2e5ebacked Yes69c1,902$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed Yes16c1,874$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.152944.8%13 W · 16 L+8.2wins+0.28per pick17cpaid+145.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd89e…35fabacked No32c1,848$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No31c1,781$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5586833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0a1…695dbacked No1c1,652$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Yes69c1,574$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.321650%8 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d3c…3daabacked No33c1,516$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a8…ff2dbacked No3c1,500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6837…15e1backed Yes68c1,500$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.9911637.1%43 W · 73 L+14.1wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdec1…4b63backed No29c1,497$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8192…0664backed No1c1,383$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d1…3c94backed Yes74c1,377$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3516…ea50backed No15c1,371$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes71c1,328$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.773534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdea…6951backed No24c1,304$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.9360%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8327…ff66backed No3c1,284$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc72…9ccfbacked Yes76c1,248$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.14540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No34c1,242$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.152941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3841…cd5cbacked Yes78c1,219$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0ef…39b6backed Yes74c1,216$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.661741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes71c1,163$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.651323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick18cpaid-39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xace2…8ab9backed No18c1,122$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.8825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes15c1,066$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.15311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a5c…1f26backed Yes78c1,060$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+74.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ee…3d48backed No26c1,001$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.47812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-80.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b32…b1fdbacked Yes67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3301625%4 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-65.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9781…bc2abacked No33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8fd…6b3abacked Yes67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes62c999.99$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3806732.8%22 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Yes62c999.98$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-73.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No28c907.31$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.83728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed No18c899.98$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.11323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd6…d7f1backed No30c899.93$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x83e1…6a54backed No28c897.37$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x55a6…f7dfbacked Yes74c891.97$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ea…5595backed No32c876.37$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.61812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No29c835.43$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb3…2868backed Yes71c823.62$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No31c817.76$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.531656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda1e…f3cdbacked No34c813.51$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No26c799.97$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.9947328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2718…ee75backed No33c772.73$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x021f…120dbacked Yes74c760.12$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x932c…8658backed No27c755.12$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed No28c749.96$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.49742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No29c738.3$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.674427.3%12 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x185f…52a9backed Yes68c735.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd708…b9d2backed Yes73c711.8$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.82227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4efb…f5fbbacked Yes76c709.95$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…05eabacked No28c703.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd059…2a48backed No29c700.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Yes70c699.99$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9462…3d7dbacked No26c675.82$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf46e…e1abbacked No30c669.31$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d1b…f055backed Yes77c664.57$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.57714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb8e…1dc1backed No37c649.43$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.291450%7 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26dc…95c4backed No24c637.22$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.82616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-58.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2009…903ebacked Yes78c626.27$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.34742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee1e…37cabacked No28c619.43$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked No27c613$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.512356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74cc…f578backed Yes66c604.41$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed No26c600$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1561020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.