TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,029
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,524

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,029 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee76…8fedbacked No71c2,660$1,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.613378.8%26 W · 7 L+6.9wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+23.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No80c2,500$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No76c2,005$1,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.015549.1%27 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1ed…e774backed No78c1,817$1,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec9…75c7backed Yes20c1,792$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28a3…f681backed Yes19c1,450$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe393…f016backed No78c1,349$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.82742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x267c…574abacked Yes18c1,172$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f3e…548ebacked No80c1,156$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe147…81aabacked Yes18c1,111$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef3…93a1backed Yes20c972.22$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddef…d52bbacked Yes37c964.91$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-76.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x852e…8bf9backed No80c935.91$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.18450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No72c903.95$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.342751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b6…cfe5backed Yes20c793.41$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.3570%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d79…1004backed Yes26c771$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.75714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-80.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83e1…6a54backed Yes33c765.99$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4a4…3001backed No80c704.16$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No73c648.34$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.0913650%68 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b00…0909backed Yes3c595$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc372…dda1backed Yes13c583.32$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f13…bde5backed Yes32c578.72$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes12c555$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.67125.4%18 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe2e…c9dfbacked Yes46c543.15$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-65.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xace2…8ab9backed Yes17c494.97$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.15825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc31…bf65backed Yes19c478.28$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed No70c450$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1341258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3fa…af3abacked Yes29c420.2$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.81450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1078…6276backed No80c394.92$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.53540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed No79c386.3$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.481752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f70…d9e5backed Yes27c366.55$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes33c366.36$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.1111625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked No80c333$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4aa…9092backed Yes31c315.44$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.31333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3f…bb60backed Yes33c311.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.96137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-51.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa61b…9d74backed Yes20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes19c299.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565518.2%10 W · 45 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x209b…ffd2backed Yes35c294.41$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-70.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35eb…69ffbacked Yes18c283.54$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5270%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…5d2cbacked No76c281.68$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1333…5c0bbacked No72c276.09$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90e2…6cccbacked Yes20c255$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed No68c240.99$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cfb…f786backed No63c240$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.81435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1de9…be76backed Yes23c239.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfce8…e39bbacked Yes18c238.78$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes17c229.9$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.841,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce0e…fb2ebacked Yes20c200.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0680%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf5a…b27bbacked Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4070%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4951…42e3backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x648c…09c6backed Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes14c199.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No73c199.52$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.875042%21 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e27…c6bebacked Yes25c198.8$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.85633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb721…facabacked Yes30c198.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-61.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c60…9c5ebacked Yes17c191.29$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.52475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes22c186.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4913740.1%55 W · 82 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b89…3380backed Yes32c183.46$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe212…c93ebacked Yes34c182.14$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x643f…e306backed No53c176.97$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.183333.3%11 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-37%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2c0…da4abacked Yes28c176.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd6d…00c2backed Yes27c174$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98a7…d3fdbacked Yes32c171$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe871…8ae7backed Yes30c170.65$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8b…f0b0backed No44c170$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61a9…9bcbbacked Yes29c170$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.360%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x10df…04a9backed Yes23c169$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.613125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ebd…9173backed Yes12c167.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c1…29e3backed Yes20c165$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb590…9b9fbacked Yes32c164.59$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.67250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes16c161.54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0213130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde5e…3a94backed No75c160$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403847.4%18 W · 20 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No75c158.22$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8720668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8967…99ffbacked Yes29c155.55$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No73c152.61$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.848345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6f6…c85fbacked Yes21c142.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…7da2backed Yes15c140$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214544.4%20 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked No73c139.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.81127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-61.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e3…dbbabacked Yes18c138.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300a…f137backed Yes28c137.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.241010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-75.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No74c136.66$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.86862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda40…bfc0backed Yes36c133.87$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8561…936ebacked Yes19c131.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c1…93d2backed No73c129.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6467…7cadbacked No79c126.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.961145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1551…2b86backed Yes32c126.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4070%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd4d…7b11backed Yes28c123.18$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b65…effdbacked Yes18c120$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6cf…39e6backed No71c120$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98dd…801ebacked Yes20c119$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd982…a29cbacked Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-63.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8246…4096backed Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-90.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51ec…05fdbacked Yes17c109.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27d3…8facbacked Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6e0…4f10backed Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2105…4357backed Yes20c104.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52e8…e9b5backed Yes30c101.7$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c6c…ce09backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.