TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x05d3…5d2c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
49
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Middle East, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 52 out of 100; worst Dota2 at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Dota2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffsbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.18
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$104.4
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+37%+$70.14
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Nigma Galaxy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.1
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys - Game 2 Winnerbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.8
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.18
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$36.9
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Iron Wing · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$343.04
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Xtreme Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$113.3
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Tundra Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+105.1%+$41
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffsbacked Nigma Galaxy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+59.8%+$37.42
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs strongboys (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsbacked Nigma Galaxy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$78.48
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs strongboys - Game 1 Winnerbacked strongboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$43.46
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winnerbacked Pipsqueak+4 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+95.7%+$48.9
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+73.9%+$7.78
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winnerbacked Zero Tenacity · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$23.76
All 17 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$67.98
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$228.57
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$999Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+31.2%+$311.82
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,261Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+27.3%+$343.85
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+49.3%+$66
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+37%+$54
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+40%+$23.7
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+56.3%+$180
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+28.2%+$5.06
All 9 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1backed Monte · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+108.1%+$57.15
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$57
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs Pigeons (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 Play-In Group Abacked Pigeons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10.98
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$179
Games Total: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+53.8%+$35
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$87
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+66.7%+$36
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+270.4%+$36.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $1M committed to the Cambria public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$298.66
Over $1.5M committed to the Cambria public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+122.2%+$192.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+31.1%+$66.84
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.