TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof MOUZ, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$308,145
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$393,776

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $308,145 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe183…62e6backed MOUZ66c14,090$9,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,770.532951.7%15 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere28c13,555$3,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,825.673,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed MOUZ66c11,971$7,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,011.4912649.2%62 W · 64 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8375…ba1dbacked Natus Vincere10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006848.5%33 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere21c9,634$2,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,043.111,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Natus Vincere20c9,597$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.662,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb29…e532backed Natus Vincere36c6,575$2,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,356.592245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Natus Vincere25c6,148$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.943,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked MOUZ64c6,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,159.9619757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e2…826cbacked Natus Vincere34c5,930$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9998342.2%35 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked MOUZ64c5,373$3,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,938.9735850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ad…6ed7backed Natus Vincere21c5,099$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.88742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ70c4,861$3,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.352,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ab…0fe6backed MOUZ63c4,800$3,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,775.943253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed MOUZ66c3,996$2,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,373.9964552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked MOUZ63c3,902$2,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.1283652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked Natus Vincere33c3,800$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.24928.6%14 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Natus Vincere15c3,545$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.7257322.3%128 W · 445 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed MOUZ58c3,100$1,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30211046.4%51 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Natus Vincere36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08046949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere30c2,907$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.14,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d72…ce8cbacked Natus Vincere37c2,700$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-63.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Natus Vincere38c2,500$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95061228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere18c2,389$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.973,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Natus Vincere33c2,363$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.8581843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f9a…7ef9backed Natus Vincere22c2,289$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003534.3%12 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Natus Vincere37c2,222$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.846829.4%20 W · 48 L-8.2wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Natus Vincere34c2,206$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75014532.4%47 W · 98 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0c5…da68backed Natus Vincere4c2,100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.569942.4%42 W · 57 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed Natus Vincere39c2,000$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.0113043.1%56 W · 74 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed MOUZ63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74045058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fd…8002backed Natus Vincere1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013950.4%70 W · 69 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Natus Vincere34c1,782$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60018336.6%67 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a3e…d808backed Natus Vincere34c1,775$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.06850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Natus Vincere31c1,734$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.9785446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8941…3126backed Natus Vincere8c1,687$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.4515132.5%49 W · 102 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-25.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked MOUZ77c1,667$1,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.1844957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b07…96febacked Natus Vincere5c1,663$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.62464.3%2 W · 44 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-74.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Natus Vincere33c1,600$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52810335.9%37 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked Natus Vincere27c1,568$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.9917850%89 W · 89 L-0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed MOUZ64c1,563$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.526155.2%144 W · 117 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed Natus Vincere23c1,546$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010339.8%41 W · 62 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8658…41c6backed MOUZ65c1,542$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.3710354.4%56 W · 47 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked Natus Vincere20c1,537$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.8527133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Natus Vincere36c1,500$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54097040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed MOUZ62c1,500$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57076546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a6f…6b82backed MOUZ67c1,500$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4954257.1%24 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed Natus Vincere37c1,351$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50024944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked Natus Vincere20c1,341$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.3852834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Natus Vincere25c1,250$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.51,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Natus Vincere21c1,211$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.547738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Natus Vincere2c1,120$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.331330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9a9…9bf7backed MOUZ68c1,107$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.14742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MOUZ60c1,058$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.51,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Natus Vincere24c1,010$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.652,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Natus Vincere13c978$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.571,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed Natus Vincere11c887.2$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4947641.6%198 W · 278 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere34c856.06$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.57,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4da1…e6dfbacked Natus Vincere36c841.27$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010446.2%48 W · 56 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed MOUZ61c801.98$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.7722045.5%100 W · 120 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab35…60f6backed Natus Vincere7c800$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.85534.5%19 W · 36 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked MOUZ68c796.22$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.5419355.4%107 W · 86 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked MOUZ63c779.98$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.9998052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4180…cf9cbacked MOUZ80c750$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed MOUZ68c739.92$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.924045%18 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecc7…01e0backed Natus Vincere21c706.11$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507839.7%31 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Natus Vincere35c700.64$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24535341.6%147 W · 206 L-28.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Natus Vincere17c683.83$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.9622554.2%122 W · 103 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf27e…d69dbacked Natus Vincere36c666.67$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24012050.8%61 W · 59 L+12.7wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+21.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1765…17febacked MOUZ64c621.73$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.822748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…3377backed Natus Vincere23c576.86$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.254165.9%27 W · 14 L+6.4wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+20.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcd5f…8a9bbacked Natus Vincere37c540.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013540.7%55 W · 80 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x064e…4347backed Natus Vincere38c527.61$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008537.6%32 W · 53 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Natus Vincere32c524.17$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.3416235.8%58 W · 104 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa661…eb28backed Natus Vincere23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11512742.5%54 W · 73 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5b1…072cbacked Natus Vincere16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+49.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab8b…87acbacked Natus Vincere37c499.99$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18511644.8%52 W · 64 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a4…ab0ebacked Natus Vincere4c499.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214613%6 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Natus Vincere48c480$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.7612359.3%73 W · 50 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ70c479.15$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.234,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed MOUZ68c465$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.89340.9%38 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d49…5ecebacked Natus Vincere14c439.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.71442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Natus Vincere18c429.85$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.125,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Natus Vincere37c405.95$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.241260.9%251 W · 161 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a2…feedbacked Natus Vincere25c402.07$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6912132.2%39 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere23c401.13$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.632,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked MOUZ65c400$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14043640.6%177 W · 259 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e6…84a8backed Natus Vincere31c400$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.458158%47 W · 34 L+8.1wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed MOUZ78c399.99$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8858961.3%361 W · 228 L-1.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e0e…8763backed Natus Vincere30c356.16$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8522551.1%115 W · 110 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Natus Vincere36c350$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12639245.9%180 W · 212 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…5d2cbacked Natus Vincere16c350$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6b…9c23backed Natus Vincere32c350$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-49.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed MOUZ63c338.53$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.2933043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac23…c1fcbacked Natus Vincere36c325$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1177138%27 W · 44 L-9.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-26.3%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xa952…14a5backed MOUZ64c314.96$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.399256.5%52 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked MOUZ64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.525846.1%119 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bb9…9dd0backed MOUZ67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.514173.2%30 W · 11 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf16…65a6backed MOUZ68c294.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.1223557.4%135 W · 100 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Natus Vincere24c287.35$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.829831.5%94 W · 204 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.