CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f5e5132b7d879d377c4fa612652a06fc58b19ed22cf517ea8c44f9e6cfa2e01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof MOUZ, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $144,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked MOUZ | 36c | 84,000$30,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,239.9 | 392 | 49%192 W · 200 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 83,932$53,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,216.03 | 210 | 51%107 W · 103 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed MOUZ | 36c | 13,636$4,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,849.92 | 330 | 43.3%143 W · 187 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed MOUZ | 35c | 10,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.96 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…75d7backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 8,316$5,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,913.81 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 8,000$5,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed MOUZ | 35c | 6,420$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240.48 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 4,332$2,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,642.71 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed MOUZ | 36c | 4,167$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…a924backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 3,791$2,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.8 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 3,077$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.92 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked MOUZ | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 358 | 50.8%182 W · 176 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…39dabacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 2,810$1,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.43 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…c6dcbacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 2,308$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.01 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…eb28backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 1,540$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked MOUZ | 36c | 1,022$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.92 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd2…f8a0backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 187 | 52.4%98 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked MOUZ | 38c | 789.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…121cbacked MOUZ | 37c | 710$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3216…aa16backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 700$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49d…f05cbacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 694$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.84 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed MOUZ | 35c | 510$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.1 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 240 | 55.8%134 W · 106 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1487…d443backed MOUZ | 37c | 419.68$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.22 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 373.44$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.44 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…7a53backed MOUZ | 36c | 305.12$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -6.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35ea…99bcbacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 136 | 57.4%78 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed MOUZ | 38c | 261.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 611 | 38.1%233 W · 378 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afe…aec0backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 230$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 199.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 264 | 51.5%136 W · 128 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked MOUZ | 36c | 199.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed MOUZ | 35c | 185.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 834 | 43.6%364 W · 470 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 173.23$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe200…5886backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 129 | 55%71 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked MOUZ | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 386 | 36%139 W · 247 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed MOUZ | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 400 | 50.8%203 W · 197 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…8a1bbacked MOUZ | 45c | 97.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 84.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 83.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa889…ebcdbacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 70.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 192 | 56.8%109 W · 83 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 69.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed MOUZ | 33c | 62.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 716 | 45.9%329 W · 387 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 62.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 164 | 44.5%73 W · 91 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed MOUZ | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a22…9f35backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 52.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 51.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 979 | 52.4%513 W · 466 L | +26.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…7703backed MOUZ | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 416 | 45.9%191 W · 225 L | +22.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x120e…990abacked MOUZ | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a5…fc83backed MOUZ | 36c | 38.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a5…7375backed MOUZ | 38c | 36.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4985…dce4backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 35.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked MOUZ | 37c | 35.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -18.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…873bbacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 246 | 48.8%120 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdefd…afbcbacked MOUZ | 38c | 32.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 31.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1,154 | 48.3%557 W · 597 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x464b…06f5backed MOUZ | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…715cbacked MOUZ | 39c | 28.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 26.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c53…a97bbacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…7a43backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 23.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d7…9169backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…3512backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 19.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4730…cdb1backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…a489backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca PlayoffsMOUZ won
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.