Token Launches · resolved market
Over $1M committed to the Cambria public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f2b532625013a8b1c4c50d9af9e537862f60637e297af6f2954b5c2f213c3e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4683…98d8backed Yes | 80c | 6,248$4,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8675…a7edbacked No | 5c | 3,349$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa63…00e5backed No | 19c | 2,632$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 67c | 2,177$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.51 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 14c | 2,138$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.78 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…ff45backed No | 10c | 1,970$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa10…8f6bbacked Yes | 78c | 1,765$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.42 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb741…a996backed No | 46c | 1,573$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.79 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +119%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 28c | 1,540$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.94 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 62c | 1,344$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.33 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…5d2cbacked No | 23c | 1,311$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 67c | 1,242$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.17 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Yes | 54c | 1,124$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.08 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1986…0cd0backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…26b2backed No | 23c | 1,000$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.94 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…9863backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6817…f496backed Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…01e0backed Yes | 74c | 995.02$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.78 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…160ebacked No | 54c | 923.17$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 39c | 904.05$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a82…e53abacked No | 11c | 878.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…26b5backed Yes | 71c | 694.71$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.37 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 61c | 633.56$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.63 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…78ccbacked No | 70c | 606.2$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 18c | 600$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Yes | 79c | 592.85$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.68 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d2…50c1backed No | 42c | 576.77$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 13c | 567.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 17c | 515.73$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1988…54fbbacked Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 458.81$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked No | 23c | 444.75$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 14c | 441$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…9b56backed Yes | 77c | 390.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.54 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed No | 73c | 385.84$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.59 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -6.1wins | -0.24per pick | 48cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 12c | 376.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7539…1186backed Yes | 71c | 371.54$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 340.07$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff54…559fbacked No | 9c | 330$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb2…e82ebacked No | 26c | 327.88$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8635…6972backed No | 32c | 314.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 17c | 299$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked No | 17c | 260.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983e…c5cebacked No | 14c | 232.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe656…5e07backed Yes | 64c | 230.19$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.47 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…5817backed Yes | 66c | 229.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…ad59backed No | 27c | 228.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26db…7abcbacked No | 23c | 221.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 22c | 220.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…32f0backed No | 26c | 218.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd591…8679backed Yes | 58c | 209.67$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…7ec2backed Yes | 76c | 206.54$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 65c | 201.51$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…ea6fbacked No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…daf0backed No | 11c | 199.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…f9c0backed No | 20c | 199.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc001…4b7cbacked No | 52c | 190.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.67 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba3…bef6backed No | 43c | 184.42$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…135ebacked No | 25c | 179.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 12c | 175$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ae…4325backed No | 46c | 170.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.17 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 33c | 163.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4c…c962backed Yes | 77c | 149.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fee…daebbacked No | 35c | 138.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed No | 34c | 135.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff0f…902fbacked Yes | 76c | 132.45$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…797abacked No | 53c | 129.81$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…63b6backed No | 34c | 129.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319a…06eabacked No | 22c | 127.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…6878backed No | 36c | 122.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6d…db4fbacked Yes | 59c | 119.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 19c | 118.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…a3d6backed No | 38c | 101.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe3…abefbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c7…3055backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…fa95backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cc…7bb8backed Yes | 66c | 98.48$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed No | 33c | 98.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d5…a1e3backed No | 35c | 86.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…fda5backed No | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x416d…4996backed No | 23c | 79.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 24c | 78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…768ebacked No | 18c | 70.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f4…0f4abacked No | 41c | 68.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3c…a471backed No | 30c | 67.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff2…90e4backed No | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0af…3b75backed No | 35c | 55.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 56c | 49.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +230.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 73c | 46.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 32c | 45.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…ce56backed No | 58c | 43.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd4…5ec7backed Yes | 71c | 43.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 42c | 42.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 49c | 42.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ce…9717backed No | 37c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $1M committed to the Cambria public sale?this page
- Over $1.5M committed to the Cambria public sale?No won
- Over $2.5M committed to the Cambria public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the Cambria public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the Cambria public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the Cambria public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the Cambria public sale?No won
- Over $800K committed to the Cambria public sale?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.