Token Launches · resolved market
Over $1.5M committed to the Cambria public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5978128ef2960e9332f36a00f13234fa8f08167b72bb4c02de42eac863f43c76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed No | 46c | 10,419$4,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,625.94 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…b8f1backed Yes | 41c | 9,066$3,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,714.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 56c | 7,280$4,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,071.46 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,070$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8635…6972backed No | 76c | 3,002$2,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…6bb0backed Yes | 63c | 1,579$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 44c | 1,348$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.52 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeebc…97e6backed No | 67c | 1,250$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66cf…b077backed Yes | 33c | 1,250$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Yes | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 67c | 1,153$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.51 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 5c | 1,096$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 1,081$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 44c | 938$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.9 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba7c…2a2abacked No | 76c | 794.55$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.95 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 23c | 786.6$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.58 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 45c | 743.13$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.51 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +230.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…467bbacked Yes | 14c | 699.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7539…1186backed No | 45c | 669.4$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…26b5backed Yes | 27c | 651.76$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20a…e71abacked Yes | 19c | 584.15$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.64 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 544$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ce…9717backed No | 45c | 443$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 47c | 422.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.44 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a8…0cecbacked Yes | 39c | 416.64$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 14c | 370.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…5d2cbacked No | 45c | 350$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f4…0f4abacked Yes | 31c | 339.91$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2bde…a3b9backed No | 68c | 334$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…01e0backed Yes | 32c | 312.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa10…8f6bbacked Yes | 54c | 306.67$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.12 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983e…c5cebacked No | 46c | 296$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…9b56backed Yes | 37c | 273.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes | 53c | 241.36$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.92 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…0f34backed No | 68c | 228.19$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 18c | 223.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb187…a04bbacked No | 68c | 223$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d0…2586backed No | 68c | 222.65$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a82…e53abacked No | 45c | 221.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked No | 67c | 215.86$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.17 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…32f0backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c87…7a9abacked No | 45c | 187.47$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.85 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebe…2eddbacked No | 45c | 159.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…160bbacked No | 68c | 144.09$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb2…e82ebacked No | 70c | 143.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eda…94a3backed No | 68c | 141.87$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba3…bef6backed No | 74c | 108.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f7…152fbacked No | 45c | 108.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d2…50c1backed No | 47c | 104.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1923…7879backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 56c | 88.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…135ebacked No | 56c | 83.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked No | 67c | 76.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c5…5045backed Yes | 38c | 71.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff54…559fbacked No | 47c | 57.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c7…fbfbbacked No | 60c | 55.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 43.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…1272backed No | 45c | 43.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…a06bbacked No | 45c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…c4e7backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb319…bafebacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $1.5M committed to the Cambria public sale?this page
- Over $1M committed to the Cambria public sale?Yes won
- Over $2.5M committed to the Cambria public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the Cambria public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the Cambria public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the Cambria public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the Cambria public sale?No won
- Over $800K committed to the Cambria public sale?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.