Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs strongboys (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b9d0dd87b520aa841f61d322167e0c53ea16cd89ec2f4944555da8f6bcfbd9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- strongboysof Nigma Galaxy, strongboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked strongboys | 47c | 6,540$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,480.8 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed strongboys | 14c | 5,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,705 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…5d2cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 2c | 3,158$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 3,092$1,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,809.7 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f6…68eabacked Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 2,880$1,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,658.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb76f…8536backed strongboys | 39c | 1,589$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.44 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked strongboys | 15c | 952.39$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.85 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 45c | 613.05$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 549.35$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.54 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed strongboys | 14c | 521.88$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.82 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed strongboys | 46c | 456.4$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.4 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed strongboys | 10c | 446.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked strongboys | 15c | 400$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed strongboys | 13c | 374.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.24 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed Nigma Galaxy | 6c | 320$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe174…f74bbacked strongboys | 15c | 300$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Nigma Galaxy | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked strongboys | 15c | 299.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 270$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.88 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fd…9499backed Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 250.69$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 213.39$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.05 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked strongboys | 13c | 199.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.99 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7eebbacked strongboys | 14c | 171.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.97 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Nigma Galaxy | 17c | 155$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 147.39$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed strongboys | 23c | 144.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.64 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 75c | 133.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…e599backed Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 129.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -7.6wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 118.97$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…686fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 103.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…561cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 19c | 103.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed strongboys | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed strongboys | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 43c | 92.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed strongboys | 16c | 87.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…48bebacked Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 68.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -8.0wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked strongboys | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…a8b5backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 46.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed strongboys | 30c | 40.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…baa3backed Nigma Galaxy | 39c | 38.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 316 | 48.7%154 W · 162 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f5…001dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 63c | 35.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6651…49b2backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…32bebacked Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -11.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…dcb9backed Nigma Galaxy | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed strongboys | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Nigma Galaxy | 74c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…baf6backed Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed strongboys | 43c | 27.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7e1fbacked strongboys | 60c | 21.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b07…c578backed strongboys | 59c | 21.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14de…489cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 21.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…04d0backed Nigma Galaxy | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs strongboys (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs strongboys - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs strongboys - Game 2 Winnerstrongboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.