Commodities · resolved market
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfb3f36070b8efce22c950694d596dcc85a395bcf4d1a23439598f314aa74d0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe437…ed7dbacked Yes | 35c | 5,434$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.33 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1b…4e30backed Yes | 1c | 4,545$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 7c | 4,224$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.9 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 56c | 2,841$1,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.41 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 15c | 2,586$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.88 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb78…4ca8backed Yes | 55c | 2,560$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 26c | 2,542$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.22 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 36c | 2,202$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,100$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked Yes | 7c | 1,750$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 5c | 1,370$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 23c | 1,210$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.5 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 959.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed Yes | 12c | 900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 838.5$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.19 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b26…94cbbacked Yes | 30c | 777.06$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 69c | 652.52$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.85 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed Yes | 9c | 650$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f6…3075backed Yes | 39c | 600$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…3f79backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +242.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed Yes | 33c | 499.54$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…6b9ebacked Yes | 33c | 430.68$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 9c | 414.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 23c | 407.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 388.84$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.05 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 368.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 30c | 367.91$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.57 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 14c | 350$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 5c | 293.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 26c | 269.41$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 13c | 263.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…e578backed Yes | 67c | 258.07$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 8c | 257.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…36b4backed Yes | 39c | 255.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…960ebacked No | 40c | 250$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 238$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.14 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223c…0b02backed No | 40c | 200.3$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +147%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…5d2cbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x178a…f5b3backed Yes | 53c | 200$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…411abacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 61c | 200$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.8 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfb…ecebbacked Yes | 14c | 199.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 26c | 192.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 8c | 171.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…a7e3backed Yes | 27c | 159.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03b8…214cbacked Yes | 13c | 151.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…75abbacked Yes | 23c | 150.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 30c | 141.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4db…7ecbbacked Yes | 30c | 141.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…2b60backed No | 54c | 140$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97d…bcffbacked Yes | 53c | 132.8$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…53f5backed Yes | 53c | 132.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 122.48$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…1ddcbacked Yes | 28c | 122.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed9e…f5f1backed No | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ffa9backed Yes | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 14c | 115.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked No | 47c | 115.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…6132backed Yes | 31c | 113.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfef4…d202backed Yes | 32c | 112.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed No | 61c | 111.57$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 50c | 105.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b3…5bafbacked Yes | 52c | 105.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 13c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3843backed Yes | 35c | 102$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…c89bbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9e…b051backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…b7f6backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…b04abacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…36c1backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb348…dffdbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…56e7backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ef…5a49backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…b97abacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…0d85backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 12c | 93.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…abc2backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 40c | 91.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 38c | 88.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +174.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…ca37backed Yes | 53c | 81.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ff…9552backed Yes | 17c | 76.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…a4b9backed Yes | 33c | 75.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…00dfbacked Yes | 27c | 75.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed Yes | 15c | 69.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9c…56a9backed No | 63c | 63.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 62.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…8692backed No | 65c | 62.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Yes | 74c | 62.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb534…f7e7backed Yes | 28c | 52.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked Yes | 35c | 51.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc219…04fabacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…f49abacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…ce76backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?this page
- Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?Yes won
- Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.