Commodities · resolved market
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb3bed70ad0e2840722f0e942fee145031304198fdbabf68137c1fd1ebfee1df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe437…ed7dbacked Yes | 62c | 5,245$3,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,012.54 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes | 44c | 5,046$2,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,804.39 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 78c | 4,509$3,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1,367.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 8c | 3,100$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 13c | 2,188$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.19 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked No | 8c | 2,100$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 33c | 2,041$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.48 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f6…3075backed Yes | 65c | 2,000$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 7c | 1,862$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.22 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 8c | 1,850$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.7 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f154backed Yes | 63c | 1,847$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c7…3055backed Yes | 58c | 1,700$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes | 56c | 1,569$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.67 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 45c | 1,529$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.87 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb78…4ca8backed No | 60c | 1,428$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 7c | 1,408$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 9c | 1,400$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 27c | 1,148$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.69 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 16c | 1,147$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.59 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 27c | 1,110$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.51 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 44c | 1,078$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.4 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e5…1d85backed No | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…3f79backed Yes | 32c | 999.62$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.94 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +242.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 72c | 926.09$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.47 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3843backed Yes | 61c | 815.38$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.02 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…8215backed Yes | 4c | 811.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +466.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 51c | 656.71$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.49 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 2c | 648.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.83 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 65c | 599.99$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.73 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb98…6d3cbacked Yes | 54c | 598.34$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 60c | 540.61$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.38 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 63c | 532.1$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.37 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…9097backed Yes | 60c | 521.83$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 57c | 520$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.08 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 4c | 506.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.3 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…86debacked Yes | 61c | 506.66$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 45c | 504.25$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked Yes | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…eadabacked No | 67c | 500$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked No | 45c | 466.19$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 41c | 409.08$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.41 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…7dc8backed Yes | 56c | 389.67$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked Yes | 56c | 381.64$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.48 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa140…5531backed Yes | 42c | 350$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 59c | 342.13$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.41 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Yes | 56c | 333.58$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 306.7$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.01 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd6…0e55backed Yes | 72c | 300.4$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1be…b16dbacked No | 39c | 300$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d1…b57bbacked No | 55c | 300$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…f76fbacked Yes | 59c | 282$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +162.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc1…5121backed Yes | 31c | 272.01$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +221.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 37c | 253.89$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.9 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 40c | 242$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 59c | 238.89$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.27 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 238$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.81 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…90c7backed Yes | 67c | 237.48$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 230.22$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.68 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…6132backed Yes | 65c | 213.57$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 44c | 201.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.02 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfb…ecebbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d6…4980backed No | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5efb…5e3bbacked No | 33c | 194.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd0…047fbacked Yes | 13c | 190$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes | 19c | 183.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.18 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Yes | 53c | 171.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.64 | 107 | 67.3%72 W · 35 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…36b4backed Yes | 61c | 163.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 7c | 160.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +174.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 61c | 158.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 65c | 154.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 40c | 151.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…abc2backed Yes | 66c | 143.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 60c | 143.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed Yes | 72c | 139.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 26c | 126.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 32c | 117.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 46c | 111.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…e0c0backed Yes | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 48c | 103.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…23c8backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3004…3df7backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed9e…f5f1backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x750e…968dbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbebe…72e1backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1c…0902backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9abbbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…6420backed No | 62c | 93.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 56c | 92.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 12c | 91.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.47 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…dd40backed Yes | 55c | 83.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 76.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Yes | 45c | 75.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…03c5backed Yes | 48c | 75.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?this page
- Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.