Commodities · resolved market
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f0ec305a238c9f9bab4d755a78067934ce3feea00ededd058efb28edd7e4b34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 2c | 10,148$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.19 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes | 23c | 1,444$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.53 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,086$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f154backed Yes | 12c | 961.65$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe437…ed7dbacked Yes | 12c | 956.58$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.71 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 7c | 881.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba3…6c19backed Yes | 11c | 815.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 15c | 669.42$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 24c | 637.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.05 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 77c | 550$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 28c | 500$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed No | 74c | 445.03$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.64 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 415.9$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd6…0e55backed Yes | 13c | 308.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e38…c9edbacked Yes | 13c | 262.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9420…b86cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfb…ecebbacked Yes | 10c | 199.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb2…c37cbacked Yes | 24c | 187.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 174.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 11c | 171.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 10c | 155$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 9c | 153.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 11c | 148.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 75c | 139.7$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed No | 73c | 136.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 135.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 75c | 130.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed No | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66d…15cbbacked Yes | 27c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebe…5827backed Yes | 27c | 124$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Yes | 17c | 120.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e6…e4bfbacked Yes | 27c | 119$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…dc44backed No | 77c | 109$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe687…154bbacked Yes | 27c | 107$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…1685backed Yes | 27c | 105.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 105.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3961…2c6cbacked Yes | 29c | 104$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed Yes | 20c | 101.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x971f…fbc8backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5583…aacdbacked Yes | 24c | 83.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…bce8backed Yes | 29c | 71.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 18c | 71.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d92…4eb8backed Yes | 27c | 71.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 73c | 68.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd7…e4dabacked No | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe69b…413dbacked No | 73c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…b4abbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99e3…9e68backed No | 74c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e6…91c7backed No | 73c | 45.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…15dcbacked No | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…64f3backed Yes | 27c | 38.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd732…1368backed No | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…42d5backed No | 74c | 37.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d6…0aaabacked No | 74c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…c2adbacked No | 74c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…89c7backed No | 74c | 36.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 34.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…0533backed No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232d…1426backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322f…fa6dbacked No | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c8…9322backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e0…dadbbacked No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bca…9cd4backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed No | 79c | 23.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…5773backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44f…a408backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e5…38ccbacked No | 73c | 21.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed18…96ccbacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d5…4055backed No | 74c | 18.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd041…f037backed No | 74c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7872…ee87backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?this page
- Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?Yes won
- Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.