Commodities · resolved market
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92011d1dacfc4de2735cd3edfbba256d4288dead4710e29ef6df443fe2905dbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 4c | 6,129$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.91 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe437…ed7dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,263$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…6b9ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,013$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 62c | 880$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.2 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 4c | 765.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 36c | 613.36$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +174.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 11c | 498.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba3…6c19backed Yes | 10c | 484.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…6603backed Yes | 19c | 475.64$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e38…c9edbacked Yes | 14c | 387.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f154backed Yes | 17c | 377.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3843backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed No | 70c | 286.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 13c | 240$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd6…0e55backed Yes | 20c | 203.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…f847backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 9c | 199.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 12c | 171.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62bd…3dfbbacked Yes | 13c | 156.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9420…b86cbacked Yes | 14c | 150.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…ad5bbacked Yes | 27c | 149$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ee…bbb3backed Yes | 22c | 100.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…b9c9backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 26c | 83.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 82.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 20c | 76.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 15c | 72.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…b4abbacked Yes | 19c | 59.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 44c | 44.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -78%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5583…aacdbacked Yes | 46c | 28.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 68c | 22.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?this page
- Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?Yes won
- Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.