TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x96e5…1d85

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
38
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst Commodities at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$908Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$908.02
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$182.67
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+25%+$32
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.67
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.47
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$14.15
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$28.74
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+36.5%+$18.73
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$37.93
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on March 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$168.67
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$12.5
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+41.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$820Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$820
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,300
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$270
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$280
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$160.35
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$780Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$720
Will France strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$52.42
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$96.82
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$262.55
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,008Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+42.5%+$427.99
All 10 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 20, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+95.3%+$244
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+108.3%+$52
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,410Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+41.8%+$590
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+28.2%+$3.08
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+150%+$270.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$453Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+101%+$458.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Claude 4.7 released by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$129.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,456Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+35.5%+$871.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
England-Mexico game rescheduled to different time?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$554Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$553.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.