AI · resolved market
Claude 4.7 released by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fb4db1272d90977fd559acd719320e4663ab41f8b5bf3c06ab61a58f9a7dd5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8f8…0e46backed No | 2c | 6,051$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.77 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 27c | 4,703$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa630…2359backed No | 2c | 4,386$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…3741backed No | 13c | 3,615$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.16 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed No | 2c | 2,648$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…5cdcbacked Yes | 70c | 2,286$1,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.37 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x271f…b592backed No | 3c | 1,989$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,865$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,820$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 16c | 1,794$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.19 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 40c | 1,772$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.45 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed Yes | 66c | 1,499$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 1,456$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,092$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 68c | 800$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.66 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 45c | 786.5$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.29 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked No | 2c | 702.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 599.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 8c | 514.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 61c | 499.33$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.21 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e5…1d85backed Yes | 69c | 419.33$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…863bbacked No | 15c | 417.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 53c | 400$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.4 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 3c | 394.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 6c | 354.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 52c | 335.36$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.97 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8f…1cb8backed Yes | 68c | 321.42$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.42 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fe…b4a2backed Yes | 68c | 292.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 56c | 286.46$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.55 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…e559backed Yes | 71c | 271.75$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 253.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…edfdbacked No | 4c | 242.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…569bbacked No | 14c | 234.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 29c | 229.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked Yes | 57c | 222$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c35…2965backed No | 32c | 201.46$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa92b…8cb5backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf28…2c2abacked Yes | 54c | 188$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf62c…4834backed Yes | 61c | 162$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 160.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked No | 33c | 160$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 46c | 160$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 35c | 135.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…730dbacked Yes | 59c | 134.3$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb315…92e1backed Yes | 61c | 132.18$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +605.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 44c | 132.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked No | 40c | 125.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70fd…84babacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc563…ce83backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe24…10fbbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…297bbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Yes | 61c | 99.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x921d…efb8backed Yes | 53c | 99.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 23c | 94.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked Yes | 72c | 92.18$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 59c | 87.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc289…fedabacked No | 50c | 86.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 57c | 85.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…b054backed Yes | 52c | 80.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 36c | 80.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdea…c050backed Yes | 64c | 78.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…a882backed Yes | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -72%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 57c | 69.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 59c | 68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…636dbacked Yes | 64c | 62.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 55c | 58.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…8be6backed Yes | 56c | 53.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13b1…64d1backed Yes | 60c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 50c | 44.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…7804backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…4fc0backed Yes | 64c | 38.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…b279backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…1aecbacked Yes | 51c | 37.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…be3ebacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba3…16babacked Yes | 66c | 36.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 40c | 35.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1020…4968backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 33c | 32.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2098…c8aebacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc5…6518backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb92…b0c0backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf076…0b3cbacked Yes | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4186…ee77backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.0wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…72bfbacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1a…837ebacked Yes | 53c | 27.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…c0b4backed Yes | 58c | 25.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…367bbacked Yes | 60c | 25.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +371.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 50c | 25.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 78c | 20.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Claude 4.7 released by June 30?this page
- Claude 4.7 released by April 17?Yes won
- Claude 4.7 released by April 24?Yes won
- Claude 4.7 released by April 30?Yes won
- Claude 4.7 released by March 15?No won
- Claude 4.7 released by March 31?No won
- Claude 4.7 released by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.