AI · resolved market
Claude 4.7 released by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3eb70e93d6e23f01551c1db1669b338db1f610189c469f87ec0c95795a3f59a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09d0…ec5ebacked Yes | 4c | 5,548$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ea…b38ebacked Yes | 15c | 3,243$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd4…a98cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,317$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,028$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc56…a8e6backed Yes | 10c | 1,946$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,272$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 991$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd807…f489backed Yes | 10c | 877.52$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x400f…23a6backed Yes | 4c | 741.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 469.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…90b5backed Yes | 20c | 430$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 408$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 377.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…d05dbacked Yes | 5c | 374.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 9c | 296.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 18c | 260.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d6…ecaabacked Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 10c | 199$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 14c | 167.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab1…e0fabacked Yes | 8c | 158.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…56b6backed Yes | 21c | 119.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…22fdbacked Yes | 22c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 57.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed No | 77c | 42.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d0…fbd8backed No | 80c | 29.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Claude 4.7 released by March 31?this page
- Claude 4.7 released by April 17?Yes won
- Claude 4.7 released by April 24?Yes won
- Claude 4.7 released by April 30?Yes won
- Claude 4.7 released by June 30?Yes won
- Claude 4.7 released by March 15?No won
- Claude 4.7 released by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.