AI · resolved market
Claude 4.7 released by April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9c0bc5d26b5533f787dee6e9040406d09eaa4ebc8b6ccbd9b63c54cfa36c764
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3fb…2800backed No | 1c | 6,543$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…2ceebacked No | 9c | 2,768$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.89 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…82afbacked No | 16c | 1,321$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x271f…b592backed No | 5c | 1,080$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed No | 7c | 999.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…225fbacked No | 3c | 886.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 17c | 794.12$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.52 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…3857backed No | 13c | 789.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 769$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…0e46backed No | 25c | 547.24$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 14c | 262.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 6c | 190.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 162$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked No | 16c | 157.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…5b73backed No | 26c | 102.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18b…9996backed Yes | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Claude 4.7 released by April 24?this page
- Claude 4.7 released by April 17?Yes won
- Claude 4.7 released by April 30?Yes won
- Claude 4.7 released by June 30?Yes won
- Claude 4.7 released by March 15?No won
- Claude 4.7 released by March 31?No won
- Claude 4.7 released by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.