AI · resolved market
Claude 4.7 released by April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe6e78fcfccd1333a7632dd28fcbca2ea5b8fb1f5f74cf67438cf2cff3ceffe2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 16c | 7,288$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.15 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa630…2359backed No | 13c | 5,992$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x271f…b592backed No | 10c | 5,069$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…4d23backed No | 10c | 4,785$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 7c | 3,038$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.59 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,034$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…3424backed No | 11c | 2,580$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 18c | 2,407$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.81 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9411…fbbabacked No | 11c | 2,136$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…2fa2backed No | 10c | 2,010$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 12c | 1,466$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.54 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…2ceebacked No | 23c | 1,179$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.13 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 9c | 1,090$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…0e46backed No | 11c | 1,025$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b2…f7a2backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e8…4241backed No | 10c | 980.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 7c | 969.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c17…9b67backed No | 24c | 942.47$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 11c | 930.68$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.57 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…bbf9backed No | 12c | 884.27$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed No | 16c | 803.72$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c4…2781backed No | 24c | 700$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +178.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed No | 9c | 603.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 15c | 600$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes | 80c | 590$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.3 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 7c | 558$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe84…e34ebacked No | 9c | 556.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5f…68ebbacked No | 10c | 526.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470f…be46backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 26c | 500$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3136…b9e4backed No | 9c | 500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…9080backed No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 27c | 394.4$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 75c | 330.22$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…c029backed No | 24c | 330$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 77c | 300.07$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed No | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ef…90e2backed No | 33c | 299.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01f9…4323backed Yes | 79c | 266$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…82afbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe925…7c4fbacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…0b02backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 9c | 194.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 6c | 190.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed17…55f1backed No | 20c | 187.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 12c | 180$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…e630backed Yes | 26c | 170$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…bc23backed No | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked No | 18c | 164.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 156.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 13c | 149$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a3…b269backed No | 14c | 143.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 9c | 142$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…87aebacked No | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 25c | 139$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 78c | 136.91$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f18…7435backed No | 10c | 136.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…5b73backed No | 75c | 134.67$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…b8fabacked No | 9c | 127$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…c631backed No | 12c | 123.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…174fbacked No | 22c | 113.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8841…0614backed No | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…30bcbacked No | 10c | 104$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed No | 13c | 100.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 16c | 89.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b08…2bdebacked No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaccf…279ebacked No | 21c | 84.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x043c…423cbacked No | 30c | 66.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked No | 15c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…244dbacked No | 19c | 62.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed No | 27c | 57.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…ab1cbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…f4d1backed No | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 27c | 43.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…1aefbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc8…5709backed Yes | 75c | 14.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Claude 4.7 released by April 17?this page
- Claude 4.7 released by April 24?Yes won
- Claude 4.7 released by April 30?Yes won
- Claude 4.7 released by June 30?Yes won
- Claude 4.7 released by March 15?No won
- Claude 4.7 released by March 31?No won
- Claude 4.7 released by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.