AI · resolved market
Claude 4.7 released by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d26b8c0d0ce24e7343157777cd448ea481db2e6ea705b8aee8cb608113f7b9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 43c | 11,536$4,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,948.58 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…47f3backed Yes | 42c | 6,000$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,479.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa630…2359backed No | 7c | 5,100$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa85…4d17backed Yes | 48c | 4,977$2,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,591.4 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…0e46backed No | 4c | 3,865$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.7 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc797…753abacked Yes | 68c | 2,884$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 2,845$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,404$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 79c | 2,194$1,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.94 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 55c | 1,971$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.67 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 5c | 1,639$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x271f…b592backed No | 3c | 1,508$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0230…6433backed Yes | 55c | 1,280$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 39c | 1,197$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.51 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…5cdcbacked Yes | 61c | 1,130$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.31 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 22c | 874.25$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.28 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 44c | 850$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.31 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c92…00f8backed Yes | 55c | 799.99$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 25c | 670.86$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.22 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 31c | 629.45$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.39 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc56…a8e6backed Yes | 56c | 608.24$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 563.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 559.25$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.67 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…7bd0backed Yes | 54c | 554.11$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked No | 6c | 540.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a3…3150backed Yes | 57c | 520$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…9074backed No | 55c | 516.37$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.72 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 4c | 516.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 42c | 452.59$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 24c | 450$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked No | 24c | 450$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5540…fbf4backed Yes | 43c | 446.11$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x842f…9444backed No | 58c | 420.78$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 18c | 400.15$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.51 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…3857backed No | 55c | 390$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 46c | 364.96$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.69 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…ff39backed No | 32c | 351.93$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85fb…342bbacked No | 60c | 323.2$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x394c…158cbacked Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 9c | 295.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 64c | 262.62$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.23 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ef…4535backed No | 17c | 233.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed Yes | 44c | 231.64$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.85 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…696ebacked No | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…edfdbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.16 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…569bbacked No | 17c | 199.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…2f72backed Yes | 50c | 199.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4288…2763backed No | 10c | 190$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 54c | 186.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fe…b4a2backed No | 54c | 180.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 35c | 179.77$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.85 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5b…e9e4backed No | 17c | 176.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 13cpaid | +605.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ea…b38ebacked Yes | 46c | 176.07$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 22c | 175.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 50c | 160.64$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 59c | 151.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0255…60ebbacked No | 56c | 150.36$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa92b…8cb5backed No | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce4…4dd3backed Yes | 63c | 148.92$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked No | 14c | 129.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…51ccbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 74c | 121.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…863bbacked No | 18c | 120.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc304…c6bbbacked Yes | 40c | 115.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 21c | 112.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 20c | 106.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 24c | 104.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 55c | 100.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d2…75b6backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…297bbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fd…84babacked No | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 42c | 98.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992a…d0c4backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed No | 41c | 88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 43c | 87.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…a647backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e07…f10ebacked Yes | 79c | 82.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked Yes | 79c | 79.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 36c | 79.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…80eebacked Yes | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf205…ce66backed No | 56c | 71.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…82e8backed No | 71c | 70.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ae…4deabacked No | 59c | 67.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 66.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a6…d85ebacked No | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 48c | 62.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa201…4ed0backed Yes | 54c | 61.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 39c | 60.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Claude 4.7 released by May 31?this page
- Claude 4.7 released by April 17?Yes won
- Claude 4.7 released by April 24?Yes won
- Claude 4.7 released by April 30?Yes won
- Claude 4.7 released by June 30?Yes won
- Claude 4.7 released by March 15?No won
- Claude 4.7 released by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.