TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Claude 4.7 released by May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$100,098
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$101,859

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,098 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb4f2…e5fabacked No43c11,536$4,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,948.581421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-69.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed Yes42c6,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,479.981030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa630…2359backed No7c5,100$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa85…4d17backed Yes48c4,977$2,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,591.41915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-74.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f8…0e46backed No4c3,865$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.71827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc797…753abacked Yes68c2,884$1,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No3c2,845$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.52560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c2,404$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.451,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes79c2,194$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.9421035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked No55c1,971$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.6727536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7d2…f954backed No5c1,639$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.238853.4%47 W · 41 L+13.9wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+27.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x271f…b592backed No3c1,508$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0230…6433backed Yes55c1,280$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No39c1,197$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.5130127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0298…5cdcbacked Yes61c1,130$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.311675%12 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+40.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked No22c874.25$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.2819040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes44c850$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.313630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c92…00f8backed Yes55c799.99$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No25c670.86$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.225221.2%11 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked No31c629.45$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.397020%14 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc56…a8e6backed Yes56c608.24$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-40.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c563.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.242522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes50c559.25$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.6729430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef3…7bd0backed Yes54c554.11$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.51457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.26per pick32cpaid+29.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd590…5eeebacked No6c540.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301811.1%2 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.22per pick34cpaid-82.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd3a3…3150backed Yes57c520$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0d9…9074backed No55c516.37$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.722623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No4c516.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.882626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-55.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed No48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked No3c500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes42c452.59$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.513422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed No24c450$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.751330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78a1…e6bdbacked No24c450$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7560%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5540…fbf4backed Yes43c446.11$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.13475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+81.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x842f…9444backed No58c420.78$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No18c400.15$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.517030%21 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18845738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x386e…3857backed No55c390$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.51060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No46c364.96$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.695111.8%6 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63b3…ff39backed No32c351.93$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+156.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85fb…342bbacked No60c323.2$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x394c…158cbacked Yes54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1382100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+127.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No9c295.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.212977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes64c262.62$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.232714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-66.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2ef…4535backed No17c233.22$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcda6…3f07backed Yes44c231.64$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.851323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06e1…696ebacked No47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x762a…0322backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb11a…edfdbacked No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.168650%43 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62ba…569bbacked No17c199.94$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.991711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-61.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x859c…2f72backed Yes50c199.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+68.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4288…2763backed No10c190$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-56.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x098d…6cc2backed Yes54c186.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.08520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-62.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0fe…b4a2backed No54c180.85$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.22250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes35c179.77$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.8520130.3%61 W · 140 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c5b…e9e4backed No17c176.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick13cpaid+605.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5ea…b38ebacked Yes46c176.07$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No22c175.11$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1213738%52 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes50c160.64$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4312050.8%61 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes59c151.18$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5112639.7%50 W · 76 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0255…60ebbacked No56c150.36$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa92b…8cb5backed No14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ce4…4dd3backed Yes63c148.92$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.08742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c4a…1b2fbacked No14c129.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5039…51ccbacked Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes74c121.46$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.657426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x792b…863bbacked No18c120.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.051553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc304…c6bbbacked Yes40c115.38$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No21c112.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.531867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No20c106.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2519818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed No24c104.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked No55c100.01$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557951.9%41 W · 38 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2118311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7593…e677backed No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0327…5e15backed Yes59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-37.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4911549.6%57 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-2.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4d2…75b6backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4e…297bbacked Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.763145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa41a…0fd7backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x844a…5f53backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544544.4%20 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70fd…84babacked No37c99.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes42c98.37$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.062250%11 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x992a…d0c4backed No56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed No41c88$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.086428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes43c87.7$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.418544.3%82 W · 103 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb171…a647backed No58c86.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-66.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e07…f10ebacked Yes79c82.42$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.03837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d7c…3e7abacked Yes79c79.75$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.461963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes36c79.48$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8425122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6b5…80eebacked Yes55c75$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf205…ce66backed No56c71.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe136…82e8backed No71c70.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8ae…4deabacked No59c67.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.79250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No52c66.82$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9825632.8%84 W · 172 L-24.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa2a6…d85ebacked No48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed No48c62.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.991947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa201…4ed0backed Yes54c61.23$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No39c60.89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7489317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.