Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00bfe149b087de3dfbb87d5dd04172b506f9156b5ca88f2f985e42ac832ca4a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 6c | 2,552$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.32 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 26c | 769.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 616.78$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 450$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 61c | 401$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.92 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 77c | 354.4$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.9 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 326.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 71c | 299.29$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 40c | 274.11$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.36 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 39c | 247.11$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.4 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 27c | 235.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 190.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 11c | 180.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 76c | 174.92$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 17c | 154.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 139.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e5…1d85backed No | 79c | 136.85$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc017…9f26backed No | 61c | 126.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 16c | 110.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 73c | 109.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 75c | 107.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 42c | 105.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 103.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked Yes | 42c | 102.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 100.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 77c | 94.16$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed Yes | 36c | 80.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 77.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 27c | 72.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked Yes | 42c | 71.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 71c | 70.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 73c | 69.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 78c | 66.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 66.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 44c | 65.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 64.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked Yes | 44c | 60.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 52c | 57.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 51c | 57.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 24c | 52.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 21c | 52.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 50.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 67c | 48.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 58c | 41.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…65e6backed Yes | 27c | 39.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 78c | 38.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…c306backed Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…e07dbacked Yes | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 28c | 36.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 54c | 36.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d1…685abacked Yes | 31c | 34.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed No | 67c | 34.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ef…80d4backed No | 57c | 33.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 51c | 32.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked No | 75c | 29.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…a984backed No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed Yes | 44c | 28.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…5f37backed No | 72c | 26.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…14a8backed No | 75c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 67c | 25.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed Yes | 43c | 24.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x642f…d971backed No | 66c | 21.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f5…3cf7backed No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 19.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…7401backed No | 60c | 18.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 74c | 17.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 58c | 17.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 77c | 16.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 76c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.