Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c5b3e05acfeba22e768cfa083fb81e539f6846e267f5db25579226d1a2e6aac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 7c | 2,243$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.65 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 15c | 558.81$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 500.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 17c | 494.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.58 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 14c | 431.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 346.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 24c | 293.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 74c | 281.2$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 268.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 30c | 263.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.67 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 254.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 254.06$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.76 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 32c | 219.64$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 66c | 173.47$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 171$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 25c | 164.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 31c | 161.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 159.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 25c | 147.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 147.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 129.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 37c | 125$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 71c | 103.16$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 90.37$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 88.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 35c | 86.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 71c | 84.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e6…762ebacked Yes | 21c | 81.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 29c | 80.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 33c | 74.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 72c | 72.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 72c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 30c | 69.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 65.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 66c | 64.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 34c | 60.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 35c | 58.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 69c | 56.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 56.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 36c | 54.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 28c | 53.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 21c | 52.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 67c | 51.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 33c | 46.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 41c | 45.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 31c | 43.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…39e5backed Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 39c | 40.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 78c | 40.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 33c | 36.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 28c | 36.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb0…9e77backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 67c | 34.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 67c | 34.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 67c | 33.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ed…be89backed No | 64c | 33.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 68c | 28.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…e850backed No | 64c | 23.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 75c | 20.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 76c | 17.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.