Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b33876305f8555cd3c0ba2938c9165f3574c7aee735535e9c76d75aa9d13220
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 28c | 5,031$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,620.12 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 61c | 1,742$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.78 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 1,197$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 12c | 772.13$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.71 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 11c | 491.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.15 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 11c | 471.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.72 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 16c | 470.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.93 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked No | 11c | 446$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 71c | 381.98$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.97 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 37c | 344.85$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…5f37backed No | 25c | 259.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 79c | 237.71$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 6c | 237.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.9 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 68c | 227.84$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.25 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 219.35$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.55 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 37c | 201.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.17 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 44c | 199.83$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.09 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 178.75$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 55c | 165.57$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 75c | 149.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.65 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 146.32$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 11c | 144.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.26 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 41c | 131.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 11c | 105.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.32 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 104.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…befabacked Yes | 50c | 104.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 102.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 45c | 101.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 59c | 100.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 94.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 21c | 89.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a1…7723backed Yes | 24c | 88.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 43c | 69.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 59c | 65.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 55.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 19c | 54.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed No | 40c | 54.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd421…f9e6backed Yes | 32c | 53.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 57c | 48.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 62c | 48.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 68c | 42.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 65c | 29.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 68c | 28.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76e3…cda2backed Yes | 68c | 27.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 60c | 24.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 55c | 19.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 71c | 16.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 67c | 15.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.