Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69d019bce90b40a8ad4b7eb9a017d48d2af2a345c5e394f289c7953b79807cd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $169,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Down | 40c | 24,481$9,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,657.41 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Up | 52c | 9,355$4,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900.82 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Up | 62c | 6,767$4,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,195.29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 34c | 6,623$2,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,229.05 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Up | 27c | 6,201$1,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.35 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Up | 0c | 5,320$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Up | 5c | 4,571$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e5…1d85backed Up | 61c | 4,000$2,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…6cd3backed Down | 53c | 3,264$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.08 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 4c | 3,209$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.85 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…0886backed Up | 60c | 2,882$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Up | 50c | 2,807$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.14 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…0458backed Up | 29c | 2,709$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.97 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…bcb4backed Up | 64c | 2,329$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…185bbacked Up | 60c | 2,226$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.55 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd78…837bbacked Up | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Down | 51c | 1,888$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.32 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Up | 27c | 1,854$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.91 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…b236backed Down | 51c | 1,695$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.22 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…17f4backed Up | 23c | 1,523$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Up | 42c | 1,418$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.44 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Up | 57c | 1,391$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.39 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…464cbacked Up | 59c | 1,366$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 27c | 1,212$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.83 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Up | 21c | 1,119$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf60e…936dbacked Up | 49c | 1,100$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.35 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Up | 35c | 985.71$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.78 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…90b5backed Down | 53c | 950$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Up | 18c | 912.75$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.97 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…4344backed Up | 61c | 820.7$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.59 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741e…9b87backed Up | 47c | 764$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e7…f559backed Down | 40c | 699.29$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.97 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc2…077bbacked Up | 24c | 690.02$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…1cc8backed Up | 51c | 689.58$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…551fbacked Up | 47c | 641$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Up | 11c | 610$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Up | 3c | 550$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…6d2fbacked Down | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532f…e626backed Down | 62c | 434$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Up | 33c | 431.58$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.58 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed Up | 40c | 420$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed Up | 14c | 400.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…867abacked Down | 50c | 336.05$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.65 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…20b3backed Down | 45c | 321.6$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.03 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Down | 49c | 310$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.03 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Down | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc044…2d08backed Up | 53c | 284.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Up | 50c | 253.41$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +162.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed Up | 53c | 229.02$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Up | 6c | 210.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Up | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…5468backed Up | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb898…580fbacked Up | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Down | 39c | 197.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.54 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18cd…6f00backed Up | 54c | 185.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up | 38c | 181.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…9603backed Up | 59c | 180$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…3c34backed Up | 58c | 170.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Up | 26c | 167.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e8…fdaabacked Up | 25c | 167.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Down | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f3…0f89backed Down | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…89f9backed Up | 50c | 148.82$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26e6…cc89backed Up | 11c | 143.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Down | 71c | 140.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Up | 31c | 134.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9b…ab53backed Up | 17c | 114.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b7…0c87backed Up | 54c | 102.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed Up | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…c90bbacked Down | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Down | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Up | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef3…0547backed Up | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…ee7cbacked Up | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7d…6e93backed Up | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…682fbacked Down | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc8…8f53backed Down | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…a510backed Down | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x231b…f771backed Up | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Up | 49c | 79.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…4964backed Up | 51c | 72.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff2…9070backed Down | 68c | 70.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…e264backed Up | 51c | 67.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc99a…41fabacked Up | 51c | 66.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…6a52backed Up | 51c | 66.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…39c1backed Up | 51c | 66.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1f…c3b4backed Up | 51c | 65.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a22…8d1ebacked Up | 51c | 65.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c9…1a4bbacked Up | 51c | 63.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd640…480cbacked Up | 52c | 56.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Up | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…365bbacked Up | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…3ffebacked Down | 49c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Down | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8a…5af6backed Down | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f3…c13cbacked Down | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed1…908cbacked Up | 55c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…43ddbacked Down | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a7…274ebacked Up | 64c | 36.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…6755backed Up | 34c | 35.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.