Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a2a0ce2e7a897e4b5098aaf215c5978cf16afb781ed21e908ae9c779519bbb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…4860backed No | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f71…1115backed Yes | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 11c | 1,595$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.33 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 16c | 685.65$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.48 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 18c | 546.53$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4576…c032backed No | 3c | 425.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 61c | 405.46$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.04 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 4c | 337.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 49c | 336.98$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.86 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 327.04$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 52c | 290$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 34c | 264.48$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.07 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed No | 49c | 200.34$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 49c | 200.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…ca37backed Yes | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 157.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 140.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9d34…2ab1backed Yes | 49c | 136.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 8c | 133.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 75c | 113.04$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 46c | 112.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 77c | 110.76$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 62c | 110.18$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 50c | 106.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 66c | 105.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe0…64b7backed Yes | 29c | 103.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 43c | 102.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…b97abacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…b04abacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 53c | 96.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4793…61d8backed Yes | 47c | 94.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 42c | 94.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 54c | 93.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 53c | 91.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 56c | 87.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5333…df0dbacked No | 49c | 86.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 83.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 22c | 82.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 77.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 74.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 56c | 74.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e5…1d85backed Yes | 48c | 72.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 36c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 43c | 69.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed No | 53c | 69.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d87…a068backed No | 49c | 68.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed Yes | 46c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 49c | 63.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c69…9867backed Yes | 50c | 62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…f612backed Yes | 54c | 58.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 43c | 57.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 53c | 56.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 57c | 52.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…d809backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbe…6cecbacked Yes | 53c | 47.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 44c | 44.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 56c | 44.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 45c | 43.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 55c | 42.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x620b…fca3backed Yes | 51c | 39.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 51c | 39.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed Yes | 50c | 37.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f7…53e0backed No | 52c | 35.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 43c | 34.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 32.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 47c | 31.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…affebacked Yes | 49c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe01f…ff34backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 68c | 29.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed No | 49c | 29.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2484…d405backed No | 46c | 28.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked Yes | 54c | 27.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 58c | 23.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 49c | 23.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 65c | 23.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…2cbebacked Yes | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5208…ec3abacked No | 46c | 22.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 45c | 22.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb2…1080backed No | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 56c | 20.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…dd39backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…908fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 56c | 19.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 74c | 15.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C or higher on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.