TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,245
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,642

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,245 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb4d2…4860backed No51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f71…1115backed Yes49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No11c1,595$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.3328737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No16c685.65$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4869520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No18c546.53$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.978,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4576…c032backed No3c425.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes61c405.46$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.0454143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No4c337.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1586420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes49c336.98$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.8641845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes55c327.04$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.176,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes52c290$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1381,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No34c264.48$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.071,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e6e…cfe9backed No49c200.34$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.393638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafaf…572dbacked Yes49c200.2$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.23946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34b8…ca37backed Yes54c199.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes51c157.25$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.055,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No8c140.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.977,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9d34…2ab1backed Yes49c136.07$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No8c133.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1211925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes75c113.04$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.711,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes46c112.87$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4224542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes77c110.76$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.919047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes62c110.18$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4726434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No41c110$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.266141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes50c106.51$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4537644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes66c105.45$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1fe0…64b7backed Yes29c103.84$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.551127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes43c102.53$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2532444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…b97abacked Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bbf…b04abacked Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No47c99.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes56c99.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9923035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed No53c96.23$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4793…61d8backed Yes47c94.61$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1be…6471backed Yes53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.348861.4%54 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1927…9649backed Yes42c94.3$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.33040%12 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes54c93.36$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.363333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes53c91.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7824066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No56c87.02$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1614961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5333…df0dbacked No49c86.56$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4140%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No41c83.41$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9a…8ea6backed No22c82.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1818878.2%147 W · 41 L+19.4wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No40c77.67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.34,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes41c74.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.241,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf547…9ebbbacked No56c74.16$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.477361.6%45 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e5…1d85backed Yes48c72.94$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.931258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes47c70$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.135432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No36c70$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.511,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes43c69.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8330141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58ce…57c4backed No53c69.83$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d87…a068backed No49c68.4$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c36…e462backed Yes46c64$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.561338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes49c63.95$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+64.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c69…9867backed Yes50c62$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.721758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97dc…f612backed Yes54c58.13$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.552085%17 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.27per pick58cpaid+48.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes43c57.63$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6355942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes53c56.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1423673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes52c55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.45731.6%18 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc25d…67b3backed Yes57c52.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5111161.3%68 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03cd…d809backed No53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x364f…562cbacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252050%10 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadbe…6cecbacked Yes53c47.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1746…24a5backed Yes44c44.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.165520%11 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37d3…4e40backed No56c44.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255058%29 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe208…e98cbacked Yes45c43.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.24551.1%23 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2982…60ddbacked No55c42.62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.394254.8%23 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes43c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.799949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.426236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x620b…fca3backed Yes51c39.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.62347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92f4…63d9backed Yes51c39.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.038130.9%25 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4107…c4c5backed Yes50c37.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.066642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06f7…53e0backed No52c35.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.881338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-47%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes43c34.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6113930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c32.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.039,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No47c31.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.061,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa599…affebacked Yes49c30.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8288…4c83backed Yes50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154535.6%16 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe01f…ff34backed Yes45c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No68c29.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1831542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51ae…ce30backed No49c29.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.613542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2484…d405backed No46c28.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f85…e60fbacked Yes54c27.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.624630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ea…998bbacked No45c24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.815937.7%60 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x192a…b0a6backed No58c23.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8620150.7%102 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes49c23.63$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0511249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes65c23.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.331,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No62c23.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.441,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f8a…2cbebacked Yes43c23.26$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.262142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5208…ec3abacked No46c22.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.343636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No45c22.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0190734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb2…1080backed No55c22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No56c20.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2586050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked Yes56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7637570.7%265 W · 110 L+62.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xaaf7…dd39backed Yes51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.82330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-45.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb9d5…908fbacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes56c19.31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.446750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No56c18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.083,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes74c15.48$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.0410732.7%35 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.