TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,391
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,421

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,391 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6f61…90d6backed Yes26c3,960$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c64…e2c3backed Yes29c3,506$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98ee…46eebacked No74c1,330$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x559b…cf74backed No74c1,320$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e27…0c7fbacked No74c1,310$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x576f…aa4abacked No71c1,203$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.872100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick74cpaid+36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7b6…cde3backed No71c1,202$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d3…2cdfbacked No71c1,101$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick74cpaid+36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes8c654.23$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.478,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes13c509.88$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7669520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes34c340.33$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.96,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes13c261.39$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.635133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6036…cc41backed Yes5c256.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149333.3%31 W · 62 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes16c248.33$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.973,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes20c240.73$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5345619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes10c237.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.781,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No70c177.46$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.661,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes11c163.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1136819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd77e…43b3backed No69c155.69$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes8c145.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.047,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1348…7037backed Yes8c143.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3117665.9%116 W · 60 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1be…6471backed No74c134.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.838861.4%54 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa74f…25c0backed No76c130.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.742458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1927…9649backed Yes32c126.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403040%12 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8e…20fabacked Yes38c123.47$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.41020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed Yes21c116.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4428329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes42c115.9$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.624542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No70c114.92$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6529558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes29c111.23$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.731,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95d4…839abacked Yes28c108.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7328119.9%56 W · 225 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes32c101.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1432444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1535432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3e5…5e3fbacked No66c99.99$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-62.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe456…b323backed No62c99.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0057…b1c7backed Yes36c91.86$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8814826.4%39 W · 109 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c1b…a999backed No69c90.77$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.232152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc250…5eafbacked Yes29c90.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.436325.4%16 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No79c88.49$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.54,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34b8…ca37backed No57c87.88$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.795100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed No72c82.07$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5818550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes34c80.34$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.123035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72d0…52f0backed No72c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.46845.6%31 W · 37 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked No71c80$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.557545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1cd…aecdbacked No72c79.03$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.238561.2%52 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes31c79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4994919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes22c77.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.161929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes36c72$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.681,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No67c71.55$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6714961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9d5…908fbacked Yes29c68.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.822128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2b5…47bfbacked No60c66.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2317633.5%59 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No68c65.04$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.053,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c36…e462backed Yes35c64.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.261338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadbe…6cecbacked Yes36c63.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.81662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes24c54.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.413930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8288…d948backed Yes34c51.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5240%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…b5b2backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.781957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xade7…3159backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No67c49.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed Yes25c48.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0623022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd333…53f9backed Yes28c47.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.288934.8%31 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No67c47.26$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No66c45.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b5c…4568backed No62c45.29$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.213748.6%18 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x37d3…4e40backed No67c44.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.635058%29 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x620b…fca3backed No71c40.28$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.782347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8506…5a06backed No71c39.64$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.43756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes30c38.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5628648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked No60c37.48$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8524569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No72c36.92$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3486050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb81…7b82backed Yes37c34.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7113053.1%69 W · 61 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked No78c34$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3419047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No68c33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.653,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes31c32.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025130.7%77 W · 174 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.610732.7%35 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No70c29.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No72c28.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7631542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No65c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9490734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No68c25.3$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.111,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x192a…b0a6backed No61c22.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8520150.7%102 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No78c21.66$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.851,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4be0…c37dbacked No69c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5119058.9%112 W · 78 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6209…8b12backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No69c19.26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9724149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No69c17.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3376371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No69c16.68$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1312365%80 W · 43 L+0.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x789d…af8bbacked No71c15.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.619060%54 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.