Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08f8256e875d25b5598f677f1227b5350cb000f9d40ccb09eab5f3421c231a80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 22c | 1,971$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.08 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6baa…d618backed Yes | 25c | 1,591$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.03 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed Yes | 5c | 1,448$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,407$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 1,178$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 2c | 1,061$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked No | 58c | 729.88$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.87 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 78c | 643$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.14 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 4c | 511.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 25c | 484.85$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 53c | 464.83$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 12c | 445.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 4c | 370.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 59c | 347.22$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.78 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 5c | 294.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 49c | 228.58$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.86 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…23cebacked No | 71c | 218.87$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9577…3de1backed No | 51c | 202.75$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.37 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…1231backed Yes | 73c | 200.09$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 12c | 192.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 152.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed No | 74c | 150.8$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…59e0backed No | 49c | 150.26$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 13c | 148.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…e65fbacked No | 69c | 140.01$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…eb6cbacked No | 69c | 134.37$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed Yes | 70c | 128.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 127.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 30c | 124.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 79c | 123.92$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 31c | 116.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 62c | 113.65$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 14c | 112.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 68c | 112.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…4768backed Yes | 39c | 106.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 58c | 105.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 71c | 101.05$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45be…0f0bbacked No | 19c | 100.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 66c | 96.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…c53fbacked No | 68c | 96.28$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 89.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 46c | 89.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 26c | 89.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.41 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 78c | 86.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 68c | 75.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 55c | 73.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed No | 66c | 73.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 76c | 71.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 80c | 70.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c26…9b6fbacked Yes | 16c | 70.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e5…1d85backed No | 73c | 70.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…49ddbacked Yes | 36c | 67.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…d9d0backed Yes | 73c | 66.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 65.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 74c | 63.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes | 39c | 60.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 61c | 60.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 30c | 59.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 39c | 59.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 76c | 59.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 41c | 58.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 38c | 58.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c24…81e9backed No | 32c | 50.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…8384backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…abbbbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…c246backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 60c | 48.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 23c | 43.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed Yes | 46c | 43.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 29c | 42.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 56c | 42.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 40.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 71c | 38.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 55c | 38.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked No | 73c | 37.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 80c | 36.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a25…13c1backed Yes | 46c | 35.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 41c | 34.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 42c | 34.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 48c | 33.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e96…9332backed Yes | 62c | 32.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed Yes | 55c | 31.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 43c | 31.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…a45abacked Yes | 39c | 29.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…a2dabacked Yes | 49c | 29.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 42c | 28.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked Yes | 79c | 28.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed Yes | 39c | 28.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3895…7332backed Yes | 73c | 26.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.