Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b78f706fa0d444ab31dd331b2584cc170cf86a363bcddccf0a1e14b794e05ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 6c | 2,095$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.52 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 1,491$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6baa…d618backed Yes | 29c | 403.43$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 399.03$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 318.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 7c | 271.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 6c | 262.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed No | 24c | 249.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 80c | 240.82$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 22c | 212.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 205.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 15c | 181.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 22c | 179.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9577…3de1backed Yes | 29c | 176.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 159.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.14 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 150.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 8c | 136.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed No | 10c | 129.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 35c | 126.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 125.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 120.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.42 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 114.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed Yes | 74c | 110.07$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +188.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 103.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 71c | 100.85$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 97.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 76c | 95.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 70c | 88.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 42c | 86.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 77.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 75.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 72c | 73.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…1231backed Yes | 43c | 71.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 63.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 24c | 62.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 50.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…e65fbacked No | 28c | 48.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked No | 71c | 48.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…6dfabacked Yes | 28c | 46.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 35c | 44.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c24…81e9backed Yes | 68c | 42.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 31c | 41.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 40c | 39.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c48…2a9dbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…05a3backed No | 67c | 29.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a25…13c1backed Yes | 53c | 28.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked Yes | 77c | 27.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 42c | 26.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 66c | 25.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 43c | 23.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 56c | 23.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 79c | 22.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 76c | 21.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 63c | 21.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…0f61backed Yes | 73c | 19.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 72c | 18.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa487…ce6abacked Yes | 80c | 18.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc892…c04abacked No | 80c | 12.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 80c | 12.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.