TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x292b…23ce

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
85
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Valorant, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Valorant at 57 out of 100; worst CS2 at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT1827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-51.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
CS2 — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffsbacked 3DMAX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$246.82
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs Blitzkrieg (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stagebacked Blitzkrieg · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$339.79
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs MAGICOS (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stagebacked MAGICOS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+203%+$134
Counter-Strike: Subtop De France vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffsbacked Subtop De France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.7
Counter-Strike: Patins da Ferrari vs Guara Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stagebacked Guara Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.98
Counter-Strike: Endless Journey vs Misa Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffsbacked Misa Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked OlyBet SB · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.5
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Abacked Inner Circle Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffsbacked ex-RUBY · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.6
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffsbacked Virtus.pro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.5
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group Bbacked Gatorian · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.09
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group Abacked Saab · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.32
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stagebacked G2 Ares · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Bbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$27.69
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+54.3%+$106.13
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs FC Famalicão Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group Cbacked MANA eSports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+37%+$12.3
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Abacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+42.9%+$60
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Acend (BO3)backed Acend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$57
All 18 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+110.9%+$154.31
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.16
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.56
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+41.6%+$64.35
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on April 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.18
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.77
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C or higher on March 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.81
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.06
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+32.3%+$43.45
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+731.5%+$183.36
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on February 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$18.92
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on February 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$12.62
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$263.27
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on February 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+25%+$4
All 14 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffsbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$104.16
Games Total: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.57
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Dbacked Anubis Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.17
LoL: FALKE Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - LES Regular Seasonbacked FALKE Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.09
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffsbacked Fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$52.06
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Seasonbacked GAM Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+25%+$51.25
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stagebacked Shopify Rebellion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$84
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stagebacked DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$435Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+100%+$435
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Group Stagebacked BNK FearX Youth · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+60.7%+$174.27
All 9 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+106.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Valorant — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hyperliquid hit $38 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+28.5%+$22.2
Will Solana dip to $120 before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+28.9%+$8.68
All 2 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$103.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,194Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,194
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Sep 13, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$71
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigersbacked Kansas City Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$95
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.