TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on February 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,073
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,884

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,073 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8278…9464backed Yes20c1,020$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.413250%66 W · 66 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes1c999.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1243021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes11c999.94$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0924010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes27c837.28$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.1233139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bb9…9dbabacked Yes5c707.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.524219%8 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-48.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes22c649.53$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes5c613.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.51,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77ce…e90bbacked Yes28c540.32$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.21844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec15…3942backed Yes29c436.15$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.64032.5%13 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes23c404.92$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.421,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1672…03f1backed Yes23c404.33$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.685635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb9…1f8fbacked Yes22c394.82$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.29728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes28c390.06$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9216036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd637…7617backed Yes19c390$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1113533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes15c376.26$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7658422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No78c338.41$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4931341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes18c309.49$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3733620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes23c303.31$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed No79c298$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6410542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No79c279.43$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.683,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x358e…bc71backed Yes20c259.08$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-48.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfca3…93eabacked Yes34c250$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-70%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9652…1ab4backed No66c250$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-81%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes30c231.97$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5648331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes32c222$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0626339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes19c210.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.312,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357d…0897backed Yes23c200$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes14c195.8$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.287323.3%17 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No66c193.03$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.6352245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes15c179.04$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.616242.6%69 W · 93 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x988a…9e6fbacked Yes26c172.37$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.31241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3984…20e8backed Yes16c171.45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.211258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+69%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No76c152.27$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.817,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c147.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes23c133.85$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3114338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8110…68dcbacked Yes27c133.42$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.52850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef62…2cfebacked Yes19c132.96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255337.7%20 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x604d…c523backed No77c130.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes12c129.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd850…d8dcbacked Yes23c128.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.21625%4 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5e7…bda3backed No78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.211050%5 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes16c125.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes22c125.31$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4124216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes26c125.16$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3211436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes14c116.09$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.151,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda89…8a6cbacked Yes27c109.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.161637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No72c109.09$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3559742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x55a1…799ebacked Yes20c108.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.14450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes15c103.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152010%2 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-69.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x968b…e4c5backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207334.2%25 W · 48 L-10.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1396313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No78c95.09$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.481,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes24c93.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5455919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed No79c90.93$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.493043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes19c83.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0229642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No71c80.7$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.538,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa31…471abacked No77c77.88$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.881376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c64…844fbacked Yes19c76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.56944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+69%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked Yes28c75.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9411359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd4a8…12eabacked No75c75$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.394850%24 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed8e…07f8backed No73c74.78$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.98862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked No74c67.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1357659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No72c65.97$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.643,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No79c60.78$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.542,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No76c60.15$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.253,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes24c60.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3154037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa301…b4efbacked No71c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.45360.4%32 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe523…09ddbacked No78c52.85$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.526647%31 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.81,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5465934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes35c49.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.243831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes23c49.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.471,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5117…1241backed No71c48.68$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.11030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-54.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0da…4162backed No75c47.04$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6414953.7%80 W · 69 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d38…824cbacked Yes27c44.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.083129%9 W · 22 L-5.3wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x46a7…7860backed No79c40.09$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5504…665dbacked No74c39.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.410055%55 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x804d…cf86backed Yes27c37.34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107552%39 W · 36 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebee…7f68backed Yes34c36.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.449529.5%28 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9468…b136backed Yes30c34.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.491435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf864…496fbacked No76c34.63$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.319643.8%42 W · 54 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No67c29.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.972466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x520b…100abacked No78c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.128565.9%56 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cde…1af7backed No79c27.86$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9620146.3%93 W · 108 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x790d…2217backed No76c27.04$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.52757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed No67c24.06$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.942,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x292b…23cebacked No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a76…5584backed No80c19.64$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.025058%29 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e7f…c287backed No79c18.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.946944.9%31 W · 38 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8431…6291backed No75c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.54564.4%29 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed No78c13.54$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.9811855.1%65 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.