Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb94379154fba7e79c8c4b6b370cd89be24b4775200d142a55ecc01a09b08268f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0638…33abbacked Yes | 1c | 3,060$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 10c | 2,224$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.65 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 79c | 1,532$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.87 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,077$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.47 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 1c | 776.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 27c | 631.15$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.57 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 11c | 603.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 12c | 513.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 4c | 402.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 30c | 400.67$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.25 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 76c | 312.64$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 18c | 278.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5888…1109backed Yes | 8c | 278.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 268.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 33c | 259.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…635dbacked Yes | 30c | 258.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 23c | 240.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…ac53backed Yes | 6c | 221.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +236.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed Yes | 21c | 210.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 6c | 209.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 197.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 79c | 192.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 17c | 181.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 22c | 177.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 175.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 173.16$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 22c | 162.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked No | 63c | 127.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 27c | 125.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 120.88$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae66…66a4backed Yes | 39c | 120.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed No | 76c | 117.85$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 72c | 111.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7e95backed Yes | 27c | 107.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 94.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 25c | 87.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 24c | 84.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 31c | 83.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 67c | 80.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…1867backed Yes | 23c | 61.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…7be9backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 22c | 58.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 38c | 53.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…b9a3backed Yes | 37c | 52.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…a98cbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8789…9c0ebacked Yes | 30c | 48.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 61c | 48.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…282fbacked Yes | 35c | 47.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 45.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…0661backed Yes | 38c | 44.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 72c | 42.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a2…cb17backed Yes | 29c | 41.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…21c4backed No | 68c | 41.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 33c | 40.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 38.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 73c | 34.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…6732backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 69c | 24.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed No | 77c | 22.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…471abacked No | 75c | 20.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd266…f250backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 63c | 17.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc339…8140backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe145…5698backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.