Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7efdc3b9ccbe894a79aba599d9b506d753f6ff89bfddb9a8e42e92b9a0afa3fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 70c | 1,313$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.98 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 16c | 1,015$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 10c | 1,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.7 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 62c | 789.81$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.28 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…aff3backed No | 2c | 774.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 47c | 501.32$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.03 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x690b…9145backed No | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5b…dec2backed Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 15c | 477.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 69c | 462.29$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 24c | 451.39$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 57c | 352.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.98 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f3…94cbbacked Yes | 44c | 350$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…bc56backed No | 56c | 350$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 39c | 300.66$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.56 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 43c | 297$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.5 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 7c | 263.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed No | 16c | 259.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb9…1f8fbacked No | 24c | 233.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 54c | 230.32$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed Yes | 67c | 200.57$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ce…e90bbacked No | 25c | 187.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 163.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 69c | 158.51$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 156.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 59c | 151.75$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 13c | 140.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 31c | 139$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…c252backed Yes | 75c | 136.33$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes | 72c | 131.03$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 74c | 124.58$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 48c | 123.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Yes | 76c | 123.63$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 63c | 122.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 42c | 110$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 53c | 106.36$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…b9a3backed Yes | 47c | 104.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 57c | 103.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…b10ebacked No | 30c | 100.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 46c | 98.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7e95backed No | 57c | 98.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 57c | 95.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 44c | 92.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 42c | 92.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 40c | 88.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…0661backed Yes | 47c | 86.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 61c | 82.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…68dcbacked No | 29c | 78.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…8a6cbacked No | 28c | 78.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 78.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3984…20e8backed No | 21c | 74.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +69%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 55c | 72.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 37c | 69.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 69c | 67.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 43c | 63.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa000…83e9backed Yes | 49c | 61.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 67c | 57.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 39c | 57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 54c | 54.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 47c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 56c | 52.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e0…cddebacked No | 57c | 51.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988a…9e6fbacked No | 30c | 47.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 57c | 47.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbe…39b6backed Yes | 60c | 46.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 44c | 45.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a67…5773backed Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 66c | 44.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 41c | 43.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 56c | 43.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 42c | 42.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…534ebacked Yes | 44c | 38.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fa55backed No | 57c | 37.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 49c | 35.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 60c | 34.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 50c | 33.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…5fdabacked No | 60c | 33.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…6bc7backed Yes | 42c | 32.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes | 50c | 32.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 69c | 31.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bb…c717backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 50c | 30.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…d74fbacked Yes | 50c | 30.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8b…20d0backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…eec2backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x638d…7cacbacked Yes | 70c | 29.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…a98cbacked Yes | 46c | 28.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…1867backed Yes | 64c | 26.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb241…7d46backed No | 61c | 25.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.