Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fc27e55a3ad62d1ba93e0fc478fbe8bd179dfbb4d2dff33c21b07645c5cefc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 0c | 26,985$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,082$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,897.95 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,978 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 23c | 901.7$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.04 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 75c | 627.51$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.17 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9d72backed Yes | 2c | 571.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +376.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed No | 34c | 560.9$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.04 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 13c | 500$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 26c | 485.03$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.59 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 21c | 397.14$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.76 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 67c | 380.47$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 73c | 374.35$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 74c | 372.67$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 40c | 334.75$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.56 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 306.62$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 63c | 281.37$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.88 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 55c | 277.18$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.4 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 252.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 37c | 196.31$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 10c | 192.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.68 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 183.51$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 45c | 175.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 21c | 172.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed No | 21c | 164.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 79c | 154.94$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 78c | 151.13$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 13c | 150.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.79 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 19c | 137.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 79c | 121.65$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 17c | 116.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 44c | 114.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8aa…a1acbacked No | 21c | 109.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 34c | 105.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…2b8ebacked Yes | 65c | 99.66$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 66c | 96.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 75c | 96.28$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 69c | 93.39$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6825…836abacked Yes | 75c | 80.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 20c | 76.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 47c | 69.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 17c | 66.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7224…1b96backed Yes | 79c | 62.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 43c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 23c | 57.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…23cebacked No | 56c | 57.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 53c | 51.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…4d6dbacked Yes | 78c | 49.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa768…0971backed Yes | 80c | 48.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a00…929bbacked Yes | 74c | 47.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 75c | 40.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 63c | 39.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 59c | 37.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed No | 40c | 35.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 53c | 34.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 60c | 33.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 58c | 33.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 43c | 32.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 50c | 30.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…981cbacked No | 47c | 28.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 71c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 45c | 26.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x686f…14cebacked Yes | 55c | 24.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…a60dbacked Yes | 63c | 24.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 61c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed No | 54c | 21.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…ca88backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9928…bfa0backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 59c | 19.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…4a18backed Yes | 64c | 19.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7621…ef40backed Yes | 79c | 18.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 59°F or below on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.