Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9369cc305965615ef73e413ab0e617fcfaf266c835ea1c041d34fd9eaf91ed3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc279…7023backed Yes | 0c | 15,027$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…d3d1backed Yes | 1c | 1,873$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 2c | 1,425$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 35c | 1,140$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.49 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 46c | 1,118$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.04 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed Yes | 1c | 914.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 49c | 365.62$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 340.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 327.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 315.6$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 308.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…7e5cbacked Yes | 30c | 243.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 9c | 201.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 21c | 193.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 8c | 178.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 78c | 177.56$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 10c | 177.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 11c | 163.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes | 39c | 151.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 19c | 115.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 106$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed No | 79c | 105.17$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 74c | 99.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 73c | 98.93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 74c | 97.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 11c | 97.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.78 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 88.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed No | 36c | 77.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 15c | 69.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 17c | 69.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 18c | 64.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcb…c018backed Yes | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf63…c3bbbacked No | 76c | 57.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 36c | 52.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 54c | 51.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 70c | 50.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 24c | 50.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 29c | 49.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34b9…6ae7backed Yes | 39c | 48.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 62c | 44.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 23c | 43.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 40c | 38.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 44c | 24.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 59°F or below on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.