TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,186

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,186 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4eb5…84aabacked No16c2,172$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No9c640.1$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No6c458.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.122,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes66c373.57$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.5725725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes10c360.1$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.7890040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c313.06$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.2317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No4c307.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0834219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes51c273.59$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.1489544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes55c252.98$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.635226.9%14 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes32c241$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.996,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No56c222.52$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.871,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes36c200$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.541845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No44c199.1$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.1532652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No57c178.17$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.731,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2139…764fbacked No31c160.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50180%0 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes41c150$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.721,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No51c141.17$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.384,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes32c139.37$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.1124932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes31c137.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3159818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No18c136.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes59c135.73$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7330141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes41c129.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.291,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e83…593dbacked No66c127.58$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.38560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No45c124.03$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.898,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65df…6144backed Yes26c117.71$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.116137.7%23 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No37c113.86$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9113531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No25c113.62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0361821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e99…9584backed No47c107$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.913762.2%23 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+27.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc4b…db02backed No64c103.36$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.987233.3%24 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b3d…2c18backed No63c102.85$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.697065.7%46 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No39c101.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.871,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No62c101.13$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.233,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes77c95.93$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7725549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes56c92.42$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.511436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes13c89.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.8928648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22fe…20c6backed No70c86.78$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.755350.9%27 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No59c86.29$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.131,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6371…fc91backed Yes35c84.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.79836.7%36 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes65c80.42$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2416548.5%80 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No50c76.82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed No40c75.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2718740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a15…76afbacked No57c68.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.967844.9%35 W · 43 L-10.2wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-29.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes39c61$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2733139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No58c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.951,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes37c58.12$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.749270.7%65 W · 27 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+25.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes62c56.28$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2849941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes27c53.69$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4537056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb1a3…b156backed Yes47c53.36$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.363148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe768…10efbacked Yes62c48.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6711355.8%63 W · 50 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf10…557ebacked No62c48.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292b…23cebacked No75c47.9$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.061435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes42c47.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3255942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No41c45.81$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.91,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x302c…108abacked Yes55c45.62$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.624837.5%18 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No47c45.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.041,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd082…b5e8backed Yes46c43.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.765556.4%31 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No41c43.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes31c43.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.613,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb897…7007backed Yes59c42.62$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6811038.2%42 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f1…4107backed Yes38c40.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.29862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick27cpaid+98%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed No62c39.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.812540%50 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64bd…82cfbacked No59c39.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1318761%114 W · 73 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedb…5e54backed Yes29c37.63$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6518351.4%94 W · 89 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No60c35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.123,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x148f…2f09backed Yes46c34.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.97140.8%29 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No72c34.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2529056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes41c34.23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2342438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes44c34.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2214544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes45c33.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.233839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f42…adbebacked Yes64c31.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.454158.5%24 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a0…2c30backed No53c30.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.89933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-42.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b47…7be3backed Yes38c29.76$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0514…4fefbacked Yes36c29.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8119531.3%61 W · 134 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b24…6e4abacked No40c28.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.57233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5be9…bf5cbacked No72c27.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204757.4%27 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeccd…d100backed No41c27.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0513122.1%29 W · 102 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fcc…788cbacked No66c27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.853171%22 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f3c…d85dbacked Yes46c24.84$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.291650%8 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4be0…c37dbacked No60c24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.419058.9%112 W · 78 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb61f…1ecdbacked No58c23.81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9e1…a2bfbacked Yes52c22.08$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.581668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No72c19.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9926458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a5c…e8f2backed No64c16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2410736.4%39 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca9…8952backed No72c14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.085062%31 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.