Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x749c3b0bfc61d1491a61541ba3d207981bedf50d2c821e548296378c234204ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,186 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4eb5…84aabacked No | 16c | 2,172$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 640.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 6c | 458.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 66c | 373.57$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.57 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 10c | 360.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.78 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 313.06$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 4c | 307.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 51c | 273.59$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.14 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 55c | 252.98$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.63 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 241$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 56c | 222.52$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.87 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 36c | 200$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 44c | 199.1$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 57c | 178.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.73 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…764fbacked No | 31c | 160.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 41c | 150$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.72 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 141.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 32c | 139.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 31c | 137.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.31 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 18c | 136.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 59c | 135.73$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 41c | 129.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.29 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…593dbacked No | 66c | 127.58$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 124.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 26c | 117.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 37c | 113.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 25c | 113.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed No | 47c | 107$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 64c | 103.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 63c | 102.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 39c | 101.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 62c | 101.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 77c | 95.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 56c | 92.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 13c | 89.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.89 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 70c | 86.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 59c | 86.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 35c | 84.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 65c | 80.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 76.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed No | 40c | 75.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 57c | 68.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 39c | 61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 37c | 58.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 62c | 56.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 27c | 53.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 47c | 53.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 62c | 48.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf10…557ebacked No | 62c | 48.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…23cebacked No | 75c | 47.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 42c | 47.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 41c | 45.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 55c | 45.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 47c | 45.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 46c | 43.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 43.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 43.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 59c | 42.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…4107backed Yes | 38c | 40.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 27cpaid | +98%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 59c | 39.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed Yes | 29c | 37.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 46c | 34.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 72c | 34.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 41c | 34.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 44c | 34.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 45c | 33.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 64c | 31.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…2c30backed No | 53c | 30.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b47…7be3backed Yes | 38c | 29.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 36c | 29.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 40c | 28.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 41c | 27.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcc…788cbacked No | 66c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…d85dbacked Yes | 46c | 24.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…1ecdbacked No | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e1…a2bfbacked Yes | 52c | 22.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 72c | 19.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.