Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b515c2f96aa3222de77150fc637f7703dc144c54dd502954246067e7bf33845
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,227 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 50c | 628.15$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.47 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 430.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 392.47$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 50c | 270$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.21 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd113…7fe7backed Yes | 63c | 262.58$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 241$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 20c | 221.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 46c | 216.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 29c | 214.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 13c | 210.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 47c | 201.33$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.64 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 59c | 199.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.77 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 188.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 161.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 150.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 32c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 69c | 144.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 78c | 127.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 78c | 127.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa64e…ca2dbacked Yes | 78c | 124.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 37c | 122.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 119.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 25c | 118.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.29 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 45c | 110.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 110.46$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 47c | 106.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 102.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 100.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 97.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 32c | 83.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 67c | 76.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 48c | 75.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 74.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 73.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 31c | 65.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 62.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…8303backed Yes | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed No | 74c | 59.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 57.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 26c | 46.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…507fbacked Yes | 23c | 45.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 72c | 41.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 28c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…3de8backed Yes | 34c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 67c | 37.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…3767backed Yes | 28c | 36.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 75c | 31.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 66c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…be86backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 72c | 29.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…0199backed No | 62c | 29.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 28.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 40c | 28.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…4353backed No | 71c | 25.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 40c | 25.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8515…c479backed No | 70c | 23.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 72c | 23.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 78c | 17.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.